Batroun elections 2009

[e.kid]

Originally Posted by dodzi

Do you actually believe that on the approximately 25000 Batroun voters, 10000 have changed their minds? If that is possible in Batroun, does that mean that there is a possibility that 40% of the Lebanese or the Lebanese Christians have changed their minds in 4 years, while they didn't change their minds in the 15 years before that?

Not 10.000
The Akl Voters had no candidates in 05, so I do not call this "change of mind"
Same for Samer's voters

That leaves 6.000 who really changed
I think it is possible

[e.kid]

Originally Posted by Makiabel

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البترون : شدّ حبال بين الحلفاء... وداخل العائلة
في يقدّر الخبير الانتخابي كمال فعالي مشاركة 53. 95 من البترونيين في انتخابات 2009 ووفق ارقام ‏نتائج استطلاع رأي، اعده مكتب الاحصاء والتوثيق، واجري في ايلول الماضي حلّ النائب حرب ‏اولا في الجرد ووزير الاتصالات جبران باسيل اولا في الساحل والوسط وثالثاً في الجرد، يليهما ‏النائب انطوان زهرا.

95% ??? Seriously ???

That is Real BS, it tells you how serious these polls are
And they call thiss guy expert ???? they should have called him analyst (****-yst), someone who talks from his A**.

There is not a family in batroun without at least one member abroad.
If they poll the people in the street, and find that 95% will vote, how can they extrapolate to the whole population whithout taking into account that more than 25% of the population is abroad and will not vote ?

[Crimson]

Originally Posted by e.kid

95% ??? Seriously ???

That is Real BS, it tells you how serious these polls are
And they call thiss guy expert ???? they should have called him analyst (****-yst), someone who talks from his A**.

Chill out dude,
Numbers/punctuation get flipped when writing is in Arabic as above; so that is most probably a 53.95% figure.

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by e.kid

Not 10.000
The Akl Voters had no candidates in 05, so I do not call this "change of mind"
Same for Samer's voters

That leaves 6.000 who really changed
I think it is possible

How do u know the Akl family didn't vote? So the members of the family don't have any political tendencies? U think they only vote when a family member is a candidate? As well, u think they will vote for this candidate irrespective of their own political affiliation?
As for Samer's voters, aren't they Kataeb? so why are u assuming they didn't vote in 2005? wasn't Kataeb participating back then? surely it was.

Originally Posted by e.kid

95% ??? Seriously ???

That is Real BS, it tells you how serious these polls are
And they call thiss guy expert ???? they should have called him analyst (****-yst), someone who talks from his A**.

There is not a family in batroun without at least one member abroad.
If they poll the people in the street, and find that 95% will vote, how can they extrapolate to the whole population whithout taking into account that more than 25% of the population is abroad and will not vote ?

Chill! it's 53.95%.

[e.kid]

[quote=vegojimbo;881294]How do u know the Akl family didn't vote? QUOTE]

Where did i say that ???
I said that in 05, Akl Followers (not family), voted mostly for tayyar because there was no AKL candidates.
Many of these same people will vote for AKL in 09, assuming there is an Akl candidate.
I esimated Tayyar's loss from an AKL canditature (assuming there is one) to be 2500, which is way too conservative (in favour of Tayyar, Gebran may lose more)
which make the best investment for 14 march is to finance an Akl canditature on a third list :)

[Makiabel]

Originally Posted by e.kid

Where did i say that ???
I said that in 05, Akl Followers (not family), voted mostly for tayyar because there was no AKL candidates.
Many of these same people will vote for AKL in 09, assuming there is an Akl candidate.
I esimated Tayyar's loss from an AKL canditature (assuming there is one) to be 2500, which is way too conservative (in favour of Tayyar, Gebran may lose more)
which make the best investment for 14 march is to finance an Akl canditature on a third list :)

So you think they're going to vote AKL only?! how about voting AKL & BASSIL, does this work for you...?!?

[e.kid]

Originally Posted by Makiabel

So you think they're going to vote AKL only?! how about voting AKL & BASSIL, does this work for you...?!?

Possibly, but not probably
These people, as most lebaneese, will do what their leader will ask them to, even if illogical.
I don't think AKL will want another MP in batroun city, which is understandable.
Now, even if they do, that is one out of two
I see no senario where tayyar can get 2 seats (if AKL is candidate)
that, by itselef, is a big setback for tayyar.

[dodzi]

Originally Posted by e.kid

Possibly, but not probably
These people, as most lebaneese, will do what their leader will ask them to, even if illogical.
I don't think AKL will want another MP in batroun city, which is understandable.
Now, even if they do, that is one out of two
I see no senario where tayyar can get 2 seats (if AKL is candidate)
that, by itselef, is a big setback for tayyar.

This non-logic mind of the Lebanese voter is comparable to the latest polls for Beirut 1, where, while a large majority consider Aoun as their political leader, the people might elect opponents to Aoun's candidates for the Orthodox and Catholic seats...

But this also shows that many voters are ready to vote for candidates emanating from 2 opposing lists... In Beirut for Tueni and Pharaon on the one side, and for Aoun and Tashnag's candidates on the other. And in Batroun for Akl and Gebran!

PS: is Akl necessarily going to ally with M14?

[e.kid]

Originally Posted by dodzi

PS: is Akl necessarily going to ally with M14?

That I cant say, I don't know. I am not even sure that Akl will have a candidate.
I remember that Frangié said that if Akl is a candidate, it will be on the 14M side.
What I am saying is that just by being a candidate, AKL will be taking votes from tayyar, and indirectly helping 14M, without necessarly having to be allies.
It seems to me that 14M & AKL have some common goals and common interests (Make the tayyar lose).
So I wont be surprised if I see FM financially helping and pushing Akl toward a third list, not because they want him to win, but to take votes from tayyar, and help Harb and Zahra.

[LebanesePride]

Akl was pretty upset against Aoun and Frangiyyehs decision not to run him in 2005, so i doubt those who listen only to him voted.

Secondly not winning the 2 seats is not a huge setback, the setback would be not to win any, since Harb is expected to win one.