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Originally Posted by geogeo758 I think in this district FPM will get 4/6 seats because I think Hnein and Edmond Gharious will be elected since they are very popular among Shias and Christians M8 and M14. |
With all respect, I find it close to impossible to agree with you. So you think that FPM will only win 1 of the 3 Christian seats in the FPM heartland of Baabda? How much of the Shiites do you think February 14 will get? So much sacrifices are being made by Hezbollah kermel the opposition and you believe that many Shiites will vote for Feb 14 candidates. Do you really believe that Christians in Baabda will choose loyalists over FPM? Secondly, if Gharios and Hnein win, then FPM will only get 2 seats, because 1 Shiite seat is for Hezbollah and the Druze seat will most likely not be an FPMer. In 2009, FPM alone (with some small help from Arslan) almost won Baabda/Aley. Do you actually believe that FPM will ony win 1/3 Christian seats with Hezbollah fully on board (not to mention Hezbollah's desperation for opposition to win) and with Baabda being separate from Aley?
One more thing to anyone who can shed some light. What is happening with the second Shiite seat? Why hasn't Ramzi Kanj been declared a candidate yet. It's extremely important that Ramzi is elected. The guy is a great candidate, young, intelligent and friendly. He campaigned so much for a free and independent Lebanon and sacrificed a great deal for the cause. The FPM received about 20-25% of the Shiite vote in Baabda in 2005 and deserve a Shiite MP in Baabda. I think in Baabda, FPM should nominate 4/6 given their great popularity there and the fact that FPM voters in Baabda outnumber Hezbollah+AMAL by 3:1. Look at 2005 election results. 4/6 seats should be a minumum and maybe even the Druze seat.