Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuyu3i  The christians of feb14 if they had any dignity LEFT they should get out and join the opposition. |
nice quote coming form a shuyu3i :P
shuyu3i my friend, this is not a question of honor, dignity or any metaphysical moral value, it is a matter of politics that is still axed on existentialism in the tribal sense.
i would not accept them in the opposition, although i know many would love to see some sort of "christian unity" or whatever such a sham might be called.
truth is, as time is proving, michel aoun read the facts of politics four years ahead of, arguably, anybody. and the strategic repositioning of the entire region is at hand, a new status quo is settling similar to taef, in form slightly different in content.
the last 4 years have been an aberration, a very dynamic sequence that the history of the region needs every period to resettle itself. now the country will be heralded by syria and saudi arabia, until the resolution of the impending peace tlaks that started with the golan heights.
hariri will be caretaker of the state in an economic and administrative sense, he will be heeled by jumblat and berri, while hezbollah wll continue its resistance. the batrak and geagea/gemayel are covering up in the name of the existential needs of some long forgotten sect.
this provides syria with leverage against israel in the talks, and guarantees for saudi arabia.
only one factor has changed in the equation that was imposed in taef and that is being reimposed now, his name is Michel Aoun. he imposed himself as the guarantor that hariri will never overstep his bounds in the state and that hizbollah will never be isolated to be turned into a trump card.
for the foreseeable future this is the situation, the government that will be born will be a reflection of this
the outcome of the impending peace talks will reshuffle this whole shebang. first of the cards able to shift is walid jumblat. as he has the safeguarding of his sect as prime interest.
berri can never shift whatever we may say, berri will try to carve himself the biggest possible size of any pie being shared in any possible way but he will always be limited by hezbollah who are an electoral guillotine over his neck.
the government will be formed either in the coming 2 weeks or the coming three months, it will be constituted of a blocking third in either clear or veiled form. don't expect sleiman's share to be more than 3/4 ministers. the 4th being a hidden gift. FPM will be internal guarantor of the regional stability, the 5th sector of the government.
what comes after the peace talks is different, and we need a couple of months of reflection to start to be able to understand it. now let us live a bit comfortably and work on the consolidation of our party, rather on making it a credible structured party.
we will have a year or so of relative stability.
17th July 2009
