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View Poll Results: Are Hezbollah (and its weapons) protecting you from:
Socio-Economic injustice 19 7.36%
Israeli aggression 113 43.80%
Palestinian settlement 79 30.62%
All of the above 62 24.03%
None of the above 73 28.29%
Other 14 5.43%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 258. You may not vote on this poll

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  (#2451 (permalink)) Old
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Default 20th October 2008

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Originally Posted by fidelio View Post
What this guy says, where he published it, when he published it, who he is, and what his responsibilities are, all of that should be taken seriously into consideration.
He also could be blowing wind..
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Default 20th October 2008

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Originally Posted by ecce homo View Post
Saudis resurrect a rival for Hezbollah
By Sami Moubayed

Asia Times Online

DAMASCUS - Word is coming out of south Lebanon that Saudi money under United States urging is being pumped into the Shi'ite community - in vain - to create a bloc among Lebanese Shi'ites against Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The Saudis are strongly opposed to Hezbollah, claiming that it is an extension of Iranian influence in the Arab world. More recently, the Saudis have began coordinating with former vice president Abdul-Halim Khaddam to break Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon.

In testimony of just how influential Nasrallah is as secretary general of Hezbollah, the Saudis have stunningly failed - despite tremendous efforts and allegations of huge sums of money being spent - at creating a serious anti-Nasrallah team in places controlled by Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Party of speaker Nabih Berri.

This applies to places like al-Dahiya, the Hezbollah stronghold in the suburbs of Beirut, and cities like Baalbak. That is why they have shifted their attention recently to other districts with "Shi'ite pockets" where Hezbollah does not completely reign, like Nab'a, and certain villages in south Lebanon.

Coinciding with this story and probably related to it, are unconfirmed reports saying that Michael Hayden, the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency, went to Beirut for a secret mission, probably aimed at working towards crushing - or at least disarming - Hezbollah.

That coincided with another high-profile visit by US Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman to Beirut, where he met Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora, signing an agreement to grant automatic grenade launchers to the Lebanese army. The visit - Edelman's fourth in one year - raised eyebrows among members of the Hezbollah-led opposition, who were welcoming Michel Aoun, Hezbollah's main Christian ally, who was returning from a five-day visit to Iran.

The Americans are trying - again - to implement United Nations Security Council resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah, through strengthening "US-Lebanon bilateral defense" relations. Since 2006, the US has committed more than $410 million in military assistance to Lebanon - hoping that these weapons can be used to counterbalance the military might of Hezbollah.

The Saudis and Subhi Tufayli
The Saudis, however, are reportedly funding a rival wing of Hezbollah itself, modeled around Sheikh Subhi Tufayli, one of the party's original founders who has been sitting in the dark since the 1990s.

Tufayli started out as a firm supporter of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, having studied Islam in Najaf (Iraq) during Khomeini's long exile in the holy Iraqi city, before the Islamic revolution of 1979. He returned to Lebanon and helped co-found Hezbollah - with Iranian support - during the Israeli invasion of 1982.

The party broke from Amal, disgruntled at the party's increased secularization and its political rather than military approach, vis-a-vis the Israeli occupation. Men like Tufayli, Abbas Musawi and Nasrallah wanted action, and immediately clashed with Amal and its veteran leader (and now ally) Nabih Berri.

Under Tufayli's leadership, Hezbollah managed to drive Amal from Beirut during the height of the Lebanese civil war in the late 1980s. Under his command rose the young Nasrallah in 1989, leading a commando force against Amal in Iqlim al-Tuffah, and becoming a member of the central command of Hezbollah at the young age of 29.

Tufayli served as the party's spokesman from 1985 to 1989, then became secretary general from 1989 to 1991. Tufayli opposed taking part in national reconciliation talks in Taif, Saudi Arabia, and as a result was expelled (or asked to resign) from Hezbollah under the urging of then Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Nasrallah served as Hezbollah's "ambassador" to Iran in 1989-1992. During this time, Tufayli was replaced by Abbas Musawi as secretary general, who in turn was assassinated in 1992, many suspect by Israel.

Nasrallah replaced him at the job, although the party's hierarchy showed that it should have gone to Sheikh Naim Qasim. Veterans of Hezbollah - headed by Tufayli - were surprised at the change of command, considering Nasrallah as too junior politically and religiously, and too young at 31, to become the Party of God's number-one man.

A hardliner, Tufayli once said that his supporters did not dream of eradicating Israel in the near future, but plans to lead a battle that will last "for centuries". More recently, he has distanced himself from Iran for its firm support for Nasrallah, a man whom he respects but envies tremendously. He can't challenge him, beat him, or replace him as head of Hezbollah or the Lebanese Shi'ite community.

He once said that some of the current members of Hezbollah "are taking the country towards destruction under the slogan of fighting the American policies in the region. If someone wants to change the government, does it not mean leading the whole country to chaos and civil strife?"

Tufayli vetoed the "politicization" of Hezbollah, claiming that it should neither run for parliament, nor hold government office, and remain committed to what it knows best: guerrilla war with Israel.

In July 1997, he organized a "hunger strike" of his followers in Baalbak, aimed at embarrassing the pro-Hezbollah government of then-prime minister Rafik al-Hariri. He has since called his small power base the Revolution of the Hungry, similar to the "Movement of the Dispossessed" that was created by Hezbollah's godfather, Sheikh Musa Sadr.

Although the Lebanese government tried to arrest him, it has since let him live freely, keeping close tabs on his activities and making sure that he is absent from public life. In 2000, when Nasrallah liberated south Lebanon against Israel, Tufayli was believed to be politically finished, since Hezbollah was at the apex of its career and no Shi'ite with a right mind could challenge the charisma or popularity of Nasrallah.

But on several occasions he came out and spoke against Nasrallah, objecting to the latter's alliance with Iran and claiming that he broke with Hezbollah because of the overt Iranian agenda of its secretary general. Earlier, in his final act of defiance, Tufayli clashed with the Lebanese state when his followers tried to take over a party-run religious school in Baalbak.

The Lebanese army was asked to intervene, when Iranian cover was lifted off Tufayli, back when the armed forces were under command of pro-Syrian General Emille Lahhoud, who became president of the republic from 1998-2007. The army announced that it had mobilized against Tufayli "on charges of forming armed groups, endangering national security and killing soldiers and civilians".

The Lebanese government of Siniora has tried in vain to get rid of Hezbollah, but was unable to do so due to the party's power base and the repeated victories it scored against Israel since 2000. The UN could not disarm Hezbollah, nor could the United States, or Israel in its failed 2006 war on Lebanon.

According to veteran US journalist Seymour Hersh, the Americans and Saudis even worked towards creating an armed Sunni terrorist group to combat Hezbollah - in reference to Fatah al-Islam, inspired by al-Qaeda - which also ended in vain.

Now, all parties are trying to break Nasrallah's kingdom from within, through splinter Shi'ite groups loyal to people like Tufayli and through the money of dissident Syrians. Any person who has seen how popular Nasrallah was in Lebanon in 2000 or 2006 realizes how foolish it would be to try and challenge him by resurrecting figures like Subhi Tufayli.

Nasrallah is one of the most charismatic and popular figures in the Muslim world. Tufayli is a nobody. Nasrallah achieved victory for his party in 2000 and 2006, whereas Tufayli left behind a troubled - almost forgotten - legacy. Nasrallah distributes money to the poor in order to empower the Shi'ites of Lebanon.

Saudi Arabian money is going to Tufayli's pockets, not to ordinary Shi'ites. Saudi Arabia will never be respected or seen as an honest broker in the Shi'ite community because of its ties to militant Sunni groups like al-Qaeda. That is why nobody aided or financed by the Saudis will ever be accepted by Lebanese Shi'ites.
Anyone surprised??? I am not. That is what happen when one party is armed by a foreign country!! all party and militia shoud be disarmed!! as for now, hassan nasrallah is playing as dirty as tufayli! and who is paying the price? Lebanon and Lebanese. iran sending $$$ to hassan and saoudi sending $$$ to tufayli. what mess are we in!!!! God protect this miserable country
  (#2453 (permalink)) Old
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Default 20th October 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
He also could be blowing wind..
There's experts who are specialists in that DI, this guy is not one of them. He's Israel's most important ambassador to the EU, and a staunch supporter of landgrab. If there's anyone who can make himself heard in the EU and in the white house circles, it's him.
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Default 20th October 2008

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Originally Posted by fidelio View Post
[IMG]

Conclusion

Another war with Hizballah appears inevitable, and the Israeli military currently is making preparations to ensure that the next round is decisive. More importantly, however, is the diplomacy that would follow the conflagration. Not only is it important to secure a meaningful UN resolution, it is also critical that the international community implement that resolution.

Oded Eran is a former senior Israeli diplomat and ambassador, and director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

WINEP

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What this guy says, where he published it, when he published it, who he is, and what his responsibilities are, all of that should be taken seriously into consideration.
totally agree. the next war will be a disaster for Lebanon. it will definitly not be a win-win situation.
  (#2455 (permalink)) Old
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Default 20th October 2008

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Originally Posted by OpusDei View Post
totally agree. the next war will be a disaster for Lebanon. it will definitly not be a win-win situation.
You remind me of the people who used to say in 2006 that the war will send Lebanon back 100 years.
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Default 20th October 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by fidelio View Post
There's experts who are specialists in that DI, this guy is not one of them. He's Israel's most important ambassador to the EU, and a staunch supporter of landgrab. If there's anyone who can make himself heard in the EU and in the white house circles, it's him.
Still, I don't trust the Washington Institute much..
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Default 20th October 2008

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Originally Posted by Dry Ice View Post
Still, I don't trust the Washington Institute much..
Regardless of the accuracy of the researches, most of the experts who contribute at WINEP are senior advisers in their respective fields. Take the visit to the experts page and browse some of their current jobs.
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Default 21st October 2008

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Originally Posted by fidelio View Post
Regardless of the accuracy of the researches, most of the experts who contribute at WINEP are senior advisers in their respective fields. Take the visit to the experts page and browse some of their current jobs.
Ghassan Atiyyah
CIA

Hassan Barari
Clean

Soner Cagaptay
Turkish Intelligence (support)

Lynne Caroe
Pentagon

J. Scott Carpenter
CIA

Patrick Clawson
US Intelligence (support)

Thomas Crimmins
Pentagon

Michael Eisenstadt
Pentagon

Barry Harris
Military Intelligence

Simon Henderson
Possibly CIA

Michael Jacobson
FBI

Nazar Janabi
CIA

Mehdi Khalaji
Potentially dealt with Western Intelligence

Michael Knights
Clean

Martin Kramer
Mossad

Matthew Levitt
FBI

James Lindsay
Potentially clean

David Makovsky
Potentially dealt with Mossad

David Pollock
Dealt with US Intelligence

Robert Rabil
CIA

Robert Satloff
Dealt with or is/was CIA

David Schenker
Pentagon

Michael Singh
US Intelligence

Raymond Tanter
Clean

Jeffrey White
US Intelligence

Mohammad Yaghi
Potentially dealt with Western Intelligence

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Default 21st October 2008

Israel mulling non-aggression treaty with Lebanon

By Barak Ravid

Israel mulling non-aggression treaty with Lebanon - Haaretz - Israel News

The Foreign Ministry is examining an initiative aimed at reaching a long-term non-belligerence pact with Lebanon to prevent renewed fighting along the northern border.

The initiative was first revealed two weeks ago during a strategic discussion over the future of the Middle East peace process that was held as part of the ministry's evaluation of regional developments.

The evaluation is the first of its kind, and was initiated by ministry director-general Aharon Abramovich, and later supported by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

Livni's close advisers and senior ministry officials participated in the discussion. Given the officials' close relationship with Livni, the evaluation's recommendations are likely to turn into official policy should she succeed in forming a government.

Eran Etzion, the head of the Foreign Ministry's political planning section, said a full peace agreement with Lebanon can only come in the wake of a similar deal with Syria. Still, he said, Israel can try to advance on a separate political track with Lebanon, the end result of which could be a long-term non-belligerence pact.

The agreement would be signed by both governments, and its focus would be a reciprocal agreement on the route of the border between the two countries. The deal would include a solution to the dispute over the Shaba Farms border area and the divided village of Ghajar, as well as a number of small border adjustments demanded by Lebanon.

The recommendation would provide for a coordination apparatus between the Israel Defense Forces and the Lebanese army, as well as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) over border patrols and other monitoring activities.

Israel is expected to ask Lebanon to significantly reduce Hezbollah's weapons stores, and to extend the Lebanese army's authority across the entire country, with a special emphasis on the area south of the Litani River, which is the closest area to Israel. In return, an agreement would have to be reached over Israeli overflights in Lebanese airspace.

The discussion also dealt with the Syrian and Palestinian diplomatic tracks, and officials present argued over which track should receive first priority.

Those in favor of dealing with Syria first agreed that the only tenable option on that track would involve negotiations over a final-status agreement with an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

Supporters of this strategy said an agreement with Syria would be easier to reach than with the Palestinians, the chances for its success are greater and the strategic dividend Israel would receive is bigger. They also said such a deal would greatly change the balance of power in the region by removing the threat posed to Israel by the Syrian army, placing distance between Damascus and Iran and possibly engendering a deal with Lebanon.

Supporters of the "Palestinians first" strategy argued, however, that without solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jerusalem will be unable to advance peace talks with even a single moderate Arab state.

One official subscribing to this view said, "Every Arab person we talk to says the central issue that bothers him, and that they give priority to over everything else, is the Palestinian issue."
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Default 21st October 2008

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Originally Posted by OpusDei View Post
Anyone surprised??? I am not. That is what happen when one party is armed by a foreign country!! all party and militia shoud be disarmed!! as for now, hassan nasrallah is playing as dirty as tufayli! and who is paying the price? Lebanon and Lebanese. iran sending $$$ to hassan and saoudi sending $$$ to tufayli. what mess are we in!!!! God protect this miserable country
wu leish za3lenein? elhamdella Allah's protected this country from the miserable fate with the presence of HezbAllah. HezbAllah isn't a militia - its a RESISTANCE - ma 7alkon tefhamo ba2a? HezbAllah by law has the right to possess the weapons - bas i understand that some Lebanese still insist on being dislexic . If you have a problem with the Lebanese constitution giving HezbAllah the authority to have these weapons, try and change the constitution .

As long as you see HezbAllah as a militia, 7at dalkon la wara, and you wont achieve anything, and you'll keep flattering us with HezbAllah being on your minds 24 7. Tufayli and his 246 supporters can get all the da3em in the world from the pockets of bandar - ashraf el naas bi dallon ashraf el naas
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