All Hezbollah related subjects in this thread

[SeekNirvana]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

but isn't LF still pro-Taef?

وهل تسأل القوات اللبنانية عن موقفها من الطائف؟

[>Watani<]

الأسد: وحده السلام ينزع سلاح حزب اللّه

08/07/2008
لو فيغارو

اكد الرئيس السوري بشار الاسد، ان لقاءه مع الرئيس العماد ميشال سليمان »الذي أعرفه منذ عشرة أعوام، وعلاقتنا طيبة به سينعقد في باريس (على هامش قمة الاتحاد من اجل المتوسط في ١٣ تموز)... والتحضيرات جارية

وقال الاسد في حديثه المنشور اليوم في صحيفة »لو فيغارو«، حول العلاقات السورية اللبنانية »ننتظر تشكيل حكومة وحدة وطنية لبنانية، للبحث في إقامة سفارتين بين البلدين، ولن تكون هناك مشكلة في ذلك، وقد أعلنت ذلك مرات عديدة في الماضي

وهل سوريا جاهزة للمساعدة في نزع سلاح »حزب الله«؟ »لا أرى في السؤال سوى جزء وحيد من اللوحة.. إذا كنت تتحدث عن الأسلحة والحرب، فيجب ان نذكر الخروقات الإسرائيلية اليومية لجنوب لبنان، وإحتلال إسرائيل المستمر جزءا من الأراضي اللبنانية، والأعمال العدوانية في العقود الأخيرة. لا نستطيع ان نتحدث عن مجموعة مسلحة، عندما نتحدث عن حزب الله أو غيره، من دون ان ننظر إلى اللوحة بأكملها

لكن ما هو الحل؟ يقول الرئيس السوري »يجب التساؤل عن كيفية الحل.. لقد جربنا الكثير منها، وأخفقنا، هناك طريق واحد وحل وحيد: السلام. وعندما يحل السلام، في لبنان وسوريا والأراضي الفلسطينية، لن يعود هناك داع للسلاح

[joseph_lubnan]

Originally Posted by 4U2IMI8

البيان الوزاري اتفق عليه قبل البدء في مشاورات تشكيل الحكومة، وبالتحديد في الدوحة. سيكون كالبيان السابق مع بعض التعديلات كاحترام القرارات الدولية وضرورة الاسراع في مناقشة الاستراتيجية الدفاعية

What do you think of the president's speech? Was HA ok with it with regard to the resistance?

[joseph_lubnan]

Originally Posted by TAYYAR AL AOUNI

The answer is in the MoU. Let's start from the beginning. GMA's position is reflected in the MoU, which also has SHN's signature to it. So that means both are in agreement to not only all articles agreed upon, but the transparency, honesty, understanding and mutual respect it was built on.

A peaceful solution to the problem in accordance to everyone, was there for the taking?! Not only did it deal with the weapons issue, but it went further and dealt with 9 other articles of national interest!

So why wasn't the MoU given a chance, rather then blasted at the first minute? Instead we were labelled Syrian/Iranian mercenaries. Instead you decided continued isolation and confrontation was the better alternative.


The birth of the MoU:

...

Claude Salhani : Many people in Lebanon find your alliance with Hezbollah a bit strange. Can you clarify your political philosophy ?

Aoun : When I returned from France there was a real problem on the Lebanese (political) scene. I supported (U.N. Security Council Resolution) 1559 (calling for Hezbollah to relinquish its weapons). But I was confronted by a political class, which included (Druze leader) Walid Jumblatt, Saad Hariri (son and political heir of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri) who said Hezbollah should hold on to their weapons. I found myself alone, against Hezbollah and everyone else, the Lebanese Forces, the Phalanges, Hariri, Jumblatt, Amal ; all were in an electoral political alliance. I was isolated. I found that there was cheating going on. Jumblatt and Hariri were promising the French and Americans that they would disarm Hezbollah while they were promising Hezbollah they would protect them.

Given this ambiguous situation I felt we were heading for a confrontation and not a solution of the problem. Knowing the nature of Hezbollah, knowing the nature of the others and knowing the U.S. and French position on the issue I imagined how to resolve the problem since no one had the necessary force to resolve the problem by force.

We engaged in dialogue with Hezbollah and agreed to a memorandum of understanding. Once the paper was published there erupted a political explosion against Gen. Aoun.

We managed to get Hezbollah to limit their demands to purely Lebanese issues. They stopped talking about Jerusalem, a global Middle East solution ... we got them to focus on purely Lebanese issues, such as the Shebaa Farms, an area I know very well having served there as a young lieutenant. Yes, the Farms belong to Lebanon.

As soon as the (Lebanese) territory (occupied by Israel) is liberated, Hezbollah’s weapons should become defensive weapons and become integrated in a defensive strategy under Lebanese Army command. And from the moment the Shebaa Farms are returned to Lebanese sovereignty, Hezbollah’s weapons would no longer be used against Israel.

Q : So how do you go about convincing Hezbollah to hand in its weapons ?

A : That can only happen through "trust building."

Q : How would you apply that in Lebanon ?

A : We have to break the circle of fear in which we live in today. If there is no exchange of trust, we remain wary of one another and it offers a permanent source of conflict. One of the first questions I asked Hezbollah was "Tell me your fears ? Tell me about your fears ?

Q : What was their reply ?

A : They said that they lived first for about 15 years under Palestinian control and suffered a lot. Then came the Israeli occupation. The Lebanese army and government were unable to offer security. We (Hezbollah) succeeded through our resistance to liberate a part of our territory. All solutions should take into account all those fears.

......

An excerpt from another interview:

Aoun: We support all the UN resolutions and we seek to implement a solution to the issue of the weapons of Hizbullah through a process in which not only the Lebanese people are involved, but also Israel, the UN and the international community as a whole. We have said that after the liberation of the Shebaa farms and the prisoners held by both sides, we can restore calm on the border and deal with the issue. Only trust among the Lebanese factions will enable them to solve this issue. The weapons should be dealt with by uprooting the causes for their existence. But of course, we first have to deter the Israeli threats - Israel has no right to violate air space all the time and is able to conduct a raid anytime against any target.

- I suggested a solution after I asked the international community to come up with a solution of their own. I don’t understand why it is not allowed to give a peaceful solution a chance.

....


And the end result, the solution, which has SHN's signature on it:


MOU:


Introduction

The first meeting ever between the head of the Change and Reform Bloc, MP Michel Aoun, and the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, took place today afternoon at St. Michael Church in Shiah in the presence of Mahmoud Comati and Ghaleb Abu-Zeinab from Hezbollah, and Gebran Bassil, Ziad Abs and Fuad Al-Ashkar from the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The meeting was held under high security measures around the periphery of the church.

The meeting lasted 3 hours, at the end of which a joint memorandum of understanding between the FPM and Hezbollah was made public and read by Abu-Zeinab and Bassil. The following is the text the memorandum dated February 6, 2006

1 – Dialogue.

National dialogue is the only avenue to find solutions for Lebanon’s crises on stable and firm bases that are a reflection of a unifying consensual will. The following conditions must obtain to ensure its success:


A- The participation of the parties that have a political, popular and national standing with a round table as a venue.

B- Transparency, openness, and placing the interests of the nation above any other interest, through the reliance on self-driven will, and a free and committed Lebanese decision-making.

C- Include all issues of a national character and requiring general concordance.


2 – Consensual Democracy.

Consensual democracy remains the fundamental basis for governance in Lebanon, because it is the effective embodiment of the spirit of the Constitution and of the essence of the pact of shared coexistence. From this standpoint, any approach for resolving national issues according to a majority- minority formula remains dependent on historic and social conditions for practicing effective democracy in which the citizen becomes a self standing value.

3 – The Electoral Law.

The reform and systematization of political life in Lebanon require the adoption of a modern electoral law (in which proportional representation may be one of its effective variations) that guarantees the accuracy and equity of popular representation and contributes in accomplishing the following items:


A- Actuate and develop the role of the political parties in achieving civil society.

B- Limit the influence of political money and sectarian fanaticisms.

C- Make available equal opportunities for using the various media channels.

D- Secure the required means for enabling the expatriate Lebanese to exercise their voting rights. We demand the Government and Parliament to commit to the shortest possible deadline to enact the required electoral law.


4– Building the State.

Building a modern State that enjoys the trust of its citizens and is able to meet their needs and aspirations, and provide them with the sense of security and safety as to their present and future, requires that State to be erected on strong and solid foundations that make it impervious to destabilization and periodic crises whenever it is threatened by difficult circumstances or changes. This requires adhering to the following:

A- Adopt the standards of justice, equality, parity, merit and integrity.

B- An equitable and impartial judiciary is the essential condition for creating a State of rights,laws and institutions, which is based on:


a- The complete independence of the judiciary as an institution and the selection of judges with recognized competence in order to activate the work of all courts

b- Respect for the actions of the constitutional institutions; shelter them from political polarization; ensure the continuity of their work; and prevent their breakdown (the Judicial Council and the Constitutional Council). What happened in the Constitutional Council is an example of such a breakdown, particularly with respect to the issue of parliamentary challenges submitted to it and which have not yet been decided.

c- Address corruption at the root, because temporary and pacifying solutions are no longer sufficient. They have in fact become a simple exercise in deception that the beneficiaries of corruption at all levels carry out to perpetuate the theft of the resources of the State and the citizen. This requires:

I- Activate the financial and administrative control and inspection institutions and boards, with the mandate to separate them from the executive power in order to guarantee that their work is not politicized.

II- Conduct a complete survey of the pockets of corruption, in preparation for opening judicial investigations that ensure the prosecution of those responsible for corruption, and return the embezzled public funds.

III- Legislate the required laws that contribute to combating corruption in all its aspects and demand of the government that Lebanon signs on the United Nations Treaty for Combating Corruption.

IV- Act toward a global administrative reform that ensures that the right person is assigned to the right position, particularly those whose merit, competence and integrity are recognized. This can be accomplished by empowering the Civil Service Council to assume its full prerogatives. Timeframes and deadlines need to be set for actions on these issues because the factor of time has become critical. The matter requires solutions that are simultaneously judicious and rapid and that use the time factor to their advantage instead of the corrupt using it to theirs.


5– The Missing During the War.

To turn the page of the past and have global national reconciliation, all the outstanding files of the war must be closed. The file of the missing in the war requires a stance of responsibility to end this anomalous situation and put the parents’ minds at ease. The parents cannot be expected to forgive without respecting their rights to know the fate of their children. Which is why we ask all the forces and parties that participated in the war for their full cooperation to uncover the fate of the missing and the locations of the mass graves.

6– The Lebanese in Israel.

Whereas both sides are convinced that the presence of Lebanese citizens in their homeland is better than their presence in enemy territory, a resolution of the question of the Lebanese residing in Israel requires a speedy action to ensure their return to their country while taking in consideration all the political, security and livelihood circumstances surrounding the matter. On this basis, we issue a call to them to promptly return to their country at the basis of the call by His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah following the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon and the speech delivered by General Michel Aoun at the first assembly of Parliament.

7– The Security Question.

First- political assassinations:

Any form of political assassination is condemned and rejected because of its violation of basic human rights, the most important foundations of the existence of Lebanon represented by difference and diversity, and the essence of democracy and its practice. Therefore, to the extent that we condemn the assassination of His Excellency the martyr President Rafik Hariri and all assassinations and assassination attempts that preceded and followed it leading to the assassination of MP Gibran Tueni, we emphasize the importance of proceeding forward with the investigation according to the officially-approved mechanisms in order to uncover the truth, which is an issue that cannot be subjected to any compromise because it is a required condition to achieve justice and serve it against the criminals, as well as to bring an end to the cycle of murder and bombings. For this reason, it is an obligation to distance these issues from any attempts at politically exploiting them, which would harm their essence and the essence of justice that must remain above any political conflicts or disagreements.

Second- Security Reforms:

A reform of the Security Services is an inseparable part of the broader reform process of the basic State institutions, and to rebuild them on sound and solid bases. Given the delicate position that the Security Services occupy in protecting and defending a stable security environment in the country against any breaches or threats, the process of building those Services must be given special attention. As such, the government is hereby urged to assume its full responsibilities as follows:


A- Put in place an integrated security plan based on the centralization of decision in security matters and a clear definition of enemy versus friend, the foci of security threats, including the question of terrorism and security breaches that must be addressed.

B- Neutralize the Security Services against any political considerations and patronages, such that their full loyalty is to the nation alone.

C- Assign the responsibility of the Services to personalities with recognized competence and integrity.

D- Security measures must not be in conflict with the basic freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution, with first the freedom of expression and political action that do not threaten security and public stability.

E- Constitute a joint Parliamentary-Security Services committee that would oversee and control the reform and building processes of the Security Services.


8– Lebanese-Syrian Relations.

The establishment of mutual and sound Lebanese-Syrian relations requires a review of the past experience and drawing the necessary conclusions and lessons in order to avoid the accumulated mistakes, blemishes and breaches. This is in order to pave the way to re-cast these relations on clear bases on parity and the full and mutual respect for the sovereignty and independence of both States, and on the grounds of a rejection of a return to any form of foreign tutelage.

Therefore, it is required:

A- That the Lebanese government take all legal measures and procedures pertaining to the assertion of the Lebanese identity of the Shebaa Farms and present these to the United Nations, after the Syrian State has declared the Shebaa Farms to be fully Lebanese in identity.

B- Delineate the borders between Lebanon and Syria, while eliminating the tensions that could break down the process, as both Lebanon and Syria have a long-standing need to complete this process as part of an agreement by the two countries.

C- Demand the Syrian State to fully cooperate with the Lebanese State in order to uncover the fate of the Lebanese detainees in Syrian prisons in the absence of provocation, tension and negativity that would hinder a positive resolution to this file.

D- Establish diplomatic relations between the two countries and provide appropriate conditions for them, which would move the relation from one between individuals and groups to one between institutions in order to secure their permanence and constancy.


9– Lebanese-Palestinian Relations.

Addressing the Palestinian file requires a global approach that asserts, on one hand, the respect by the Palestinians of the authority of the Lebanese State and their compliance with its laws, and on the other hand, the reaffirmation of solidarity with their cause and their recovery of their rights, in accordance with the following rules:

A- The social condition of the Palestinians requires a strong attention to improving their living conditions and securing a decent standard for the bases of a dignified human life according to the mandates of bilateral cooperation and the human rights charter, in addition to giving them the required facilitations to move inside and outside of Lebanese territory.

B- The Right of Return of the Palestinians is a fundamental and permanent right, and the rejection of the settling of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon is an issue that has the consensus of the Lebanese people and cannot be conceded under any circumstance.

C- Define the relationship between the Lebanese State and the Palestinians in a single institutional Palestinian framework that would be a legitimate representative of the Palestinian people in Lebanon in a manner conducive to proper coordination and cooperation.

D- Address the issue of bringing the practice of weapons outside the camps to an end, and make arrangements for the security situation inside the camps. This must be done as part of a serious, responsible and close dialogue between the Lebanese government and the Palestinians, leading to the exercise of the State’s authority and laws over all Lebanese territory.


10– The Protection of Lebanon and Preserving its Independence and Sovereignty.

The protection of Lebanon and the preservation of its independence and sovereignty are a national public responsibility and duty, guaranteed by international treaties and the Human Rights Charter, particularly in confronting any threats or dangers from any source that could harm them.

Therefore, carrying arms is not an objective in itself. Rather it is an honorable and sacred means that is exercised by any group whose land is occupied, in a manner identical to the methods of political resistance. In this context, Hezbollah’s weapons should be addressed as part of a global approach that falls within two bounds:

The first bound is the reliance on justifications that meet a national consensus for keeping the weapons, which would constitute a source of strength for Lebanon and the Lebanese people, and the other bound is the definition of objective conditions that would lead to a cessation of the reasons and justifications for keeping those weapons. Since Israel occupies the Shebaa Farms, imprisons Lebanese resistance members and threatens Lebanon, the Lebanese people should assume their responsibilities and share the burden of protecting Lebanon, safeguarding its existence and security and protecting its independence and sovereignty by:


A- Liberating the Shebaa Farms from the Israeli occupation.

B- Liberating the Lebanese prisoners from Israeli prisons.

C- Protecting Lebanon from Israeli threats through a national dialogue leading to the formulation of a national defense strategy over which the Lebanese agree to and subscribe to by assuming its burdens and benefiting from its outcomes.

Why not take the opportunity o clarify and elaborate in the Bayen Wizari on what the MOU said about disarmament. Many deem the text of the MOU on this issue to be not specific or clear enough. Even FPMer called it a very first step and stressed that updates and follow ups are necessary to move forward.

[joseph_lubnan]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

For starters, the president's inaugural speech talked about HA resistance and not militia.

Vego, now that the gov is here, I await your opinion on what the Bayen Wizari should say about the HA weapons.

[joseph_lubnan]

The Bayen Wizari regarding the HA weapons issue:

Shouldnt the Bayen Wizari elaborate, clarify and render more specific, the principles set in the MOU regarding HA weapons and give it a legal ground, and governmental stamp? Shouldnt the Bayen Wizari add concrete steps towards disarmament or integration, shouldnt it define a timeline and order for the steps? Shouldnt the Bayen Wizari underscore the role of the army as the sole armed defender of the country?

I think the Bayen should be clear on how collectively opposition and loyalists should move forward regarding the weapons. It cannot simply include a blanket support statement for the HA weapons like HA has indicated in its recent statements. The Bayen should indicate the will to pursue a diplomatic solution for Shebaa farms like the prisoners, and under the umbrella of the unity gov this time around. The definition of the integration of some of HA in the army is also a rather sensitive issue that needs to be carefully approached. That integration cannot create an independent contingent indirectly controlled by any external entity be it external to the Lebanese governmental institutions or external to Lebanon. Integration should be done in a way that guarantees a clear control and command structure for the army and government on the HA fighters, and the Bayen Wizari should be clear about that.

[modesty]

هناك مشاكل كثيرة غير مشكلة سلاح حزب لله وأولها الدين العام ومشكلة اللآجئين الفلسطينيين ومشكلة الفساد وحقوق الناس الاجتماعية التي لا يسأل عنها أحد مثل الضمان والطبابة والتعليم
تظهير الأمر وكأن لا مشكلة لدينا غير ذلك هو تبسيط للأمور
وترديد للكلام الأمريكي والاسرائيلي
السلاح ورقة لا يجب أن نتخلى عنها الا بعد قيام السلام العادل وبعد استرداد كامل الحقوق والا سيكون الحل على حسابنا ابتداءً من التوطين الى المياه والاراضي المحتلة
بالمقابل يجب الاتفاق على احتواء هذا السلاح تحت منظومة شرعية يوافق عليها جميع اللبنانيين ولا يكون لغيرهم رأي فيها

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan

Vego, now that the gov is here, I await your opinion on what the Bayen Wizari should say about the HA weapons.

and what will my opinion bring exactly? the bayan wizari will be just another charade, compromise between the opposition and loyalists. Ma Siniora said it will be a mixture of Taef & Doha, so what are u expecting from it? And I thought the bayan wizari counts for nothing.... weird how it suddenly became so important.....but of course, bc the intentions are devious and not really about the bayan wizari per say.

[TayyarBeino]

An excellent article

ما هي نظرة "حزب الله" الى مستقبل علاقته بعون ؟

تحكي إحدى الشخصيات القريبة من رئيس مجلس النواب نبيه بري في مجلس خاص، انه كلما اشتدت الهجمة السياسية الاعلامية على زعيم "التيار الوطني الحر" العماد ميشال عون ونهجه السياسي، قفزت الى ذاكرته فجأة سيرة "الثائر" اللبناني التاريخي المعروف طانيوس شاهين، لأن ثمة اوجه تشابه بين الرجلين، فكلاهما صعد الى واجهة الحدث، وصار زعيماً من خارج السياق التقليدي لنشوء الزعامات في لبنان، وكلاهما رفع عالياً شعار الاصلاح، وكلاهما واجه تحالفاً سياسياً بمكونات مماثلة، من داخل الوسط المسيحي وخارجه، مقارنة بما ترويه اكثر الوقائع المكتوبة والمروية عن شاهين.
وما لم تقله الشخصية هو ان شاهين حظي يومذاك بتأييد شيعة ذاك الزمان الذين توافدوا من مناطق مختلفة ليكونوا في عداد قوته.
ومن سمات التاريخ انه يعيد دوماً دورته ويكرر ذاته، ولا ريب مع صدور وثيقة "اللقاء المسيحي الوطني" وخطاب العماد عون في ذاك اللقاء مع ما تضمنه من مواقف جديدة ، ان القوتين الاساسيتين في الطائفة الشيعية "حزب الله" وحركة "امل"، تنظران الى تفاهمهما السياسي القائم مع العماد عون انطلاقاً من معادلة المرتاح اليه في خلال العامين المنصرمين، والواثق من ديمومته في قابل الأيام.
ولهذه النظرة اسسها ومعطياتها:
- التفاهم الذي صيغ في لحظة سياسية صعبة لكلا الطرفين، وبالتحديد في اللحظة التي شعر فيها الشيعة بمرارة انهم قد اخرجوا قسراً من موجبات "التحالف الرباعي"، وما بني عليه من مقتضيات، وفي اللحظة التي كان يشعر فيها العماد عون والمسيحيون الدائرون في فلك توجهاته بأن الحصار الذي كان مفروضاً عليهم ابان حقبة الوصاية السورية، مستمر في أشكال وصيغ مختلفة، ان هذا التفاهم قد تطور من تلقاء نفسه، وبفعل الاحداث الدراماتيكية التي تزاحمت منذ ابرامه، ليرقى الى مرتبة التحالف الذي من شأنه ان ينقله من تفاهم ظرفي صيغ على عجل واستخف به كثيراً وعُدّ انه وئد في مهده بل وُلد ميتاً، الى مرتبة "التعاقد" الذي يحظى بمقومات الامتداد.
- ان هذا التفاهم الذي وُلد، في نظر الكثيرين من فوق، وكان مقدراً ان يبقى في ابراجه العليا، انشأ علاقة "شعبية" وثقى بين قاعدتي الطرفين، أبعد من علاقات بروتوكولية بين مجموعتين مختلفتين في العقيدة الدينية والثقافية.
- ان التفاهم الذي بدأ ثنائياً وبالتحديد بين "حزب الله" و"التيار الوطني الحر" امتد لاحقاً تلقائياً ليشمل حركة "أمل" قيادة وقاعدة. فالقريبون من بري لا ينكرون إطلاقاً ان نظرته الى طبيعة العلاقة مع العماد عون تطورت على نحو ايجابي، بعدما كان يسودها في البداية شيء من الفتور، وربما الجفاء لا سيما ان نواب "تكتل التغيير والإصلاح" الذي يرأسه العماد عون حجبوا اصواتهم عن الرئيس بري عندما ترشح للرئاسة الثانية بعد الانتخابات في صيف 2005، الى بروز قضايا خلافية اخرى، لا سيما بعد انفتاح معركة انتخابات الرئاسة الاولى ومبادرة الرئيس بري الشهيرة في بعلبك اواخر آب من العام الماضي.
- ان "حزب الله" يدرك تمام الادراك مدى الإغراءات وحجم التهديدات التي تعرّض لها العماد عون وتياره من جهات الداخل والخارج، كي يفك عرى تفاهمه معه، ويدرك في الوقت نفسه حجم الخسائر التي تعرض لها الرجل من جراء مضيّه في التزام بنود التفاهم، وعليه بات الحزب ينظر الى عون نظرة تتخطى العلاقات المبنية على مصالح وحاجات سياسية، قد تستمر لفترة.
- فضلاً عن ذلك، تضيف المصادر، يدرك كل من الطرفين الاخطار والسلبيات التي كان يمكن ان تكون لو لم يكن حبل التفاهم بينهما موصولاً منذ ان ابرم قبل نحو عامين ونصف عام. ويدركان استطراداً صعوبة اوضاع كليهما، والاوضاع السياسية في لبنان عموماً لو انتفى هذا التفاهم او تهافت.
- ان الشيعية السياسية المتمثلة بالحزب والحركة توقفت في المدة الاخيرة ملياً عند المقولة التي انبثت في الكواليس السياسية بعد انتخاب رئيس الجمهورية العماد ميشال سليمان وقبله بفترة قصيرة، وفحواها ان ثمة محاولة متجددة لمحاصرة عون وتياره لمحاصرتهما سياسياً اولاً في معاقله، ثم الاجهاز عليه في يوم الانتخابات الموعود، من خلال الإتكاء على نظرية قديمة جوهرها ان المسيحيين في لبنان كانوا دائماً منذ ولادة الكيان اللبناني جمهور رئيس الجمهورية، وهو امر انتفى وانتهى ابان الحقبة السورية، اذ حدثت فجوة بين الطرفين بعدما صار الرئيس في نظر غالبية المسيحيين منتجا خارجيا، سوريا بالتحديد.
ولا بد اذن من اعادة الاعتبار للمعادلة وهو ما يحتاج حكماً الى ازالة تأثير القيادات والقوى المسيحية التي تحول دون وصل ما انقطع في السابق، والمقصود بها "القوة العونية"، مما يستلزم تحالفاً جديداً في داخل البيئة المسيحية بمكونات معروفة.
ولا ريب، ان في الوسط الشيعي، من ينظر نظرة خشية سلبية للحديث في الاوساط السياسية غير المرئية عن دور ما اضطلع به الرئيس بري في تأمين تغطية للنائب ميشال المر عندما آثر قبل اشهر قليلة اشهار انشقاقه المعلوم عن "تكتل التغيير والإصلاح" استعداداً ليكون نواة لقوة وسطية، بين المعارضة والموالاة، تحضر نفسها لمؤازرة الرئيس التوافقي الجديد ولتكون قوته النيابية وعدته الانتخابية لاحقاً.
لكن التطورات المتلاحقة بددت هذه الخشية، واظهرت ايضاً خطأ الكثير من الرهانات على امكان خروج بري من إطار التفاهم مع عون، وتموضعه مجدداً في اصطفاف سياسي آخر.
وفي كل الاحوال تقيم الشيعية السياسية على قراءة فحواها ان صمود تفاهمها مع العماد عون في اطار المعارضة الوطنية، أثمر انتصاراً سياسياً تمثل اولاً في قبول الموالاة الذهاب الى مؤتمر الدوحة واقرارها قانون الانتخاب على اساس قانون عام 1960، وبالتالي فهي مطمئنة كل الاطمئنان الى ان المرحلة المقبلة هي مرحلة ترجمة هذا الانتصار عملياً، وذلك من خلال المعطيات الآتية:
- ان العماد عون وقاعدة المعارضة في الشارع المسيحي قادرة على اكتساح المقاعد المسيحية في كل دوائر كسروان وجبيل والمتن الشمالي وبعبدا اضافة الى زحلة وزغرتا، وعلى إحداث اختراق اكيد في الكورة والبقاع الغربي، فضلاً عن دائرة بيروت الاولى المحدثة.
- ان هذه القوى مطمئنة ايضاً الى ان شعبية حليفها العماد عون، رغم كل ما قيل ويقال، هي في احسن احوالها، وذلك بناء على احصاءات واستطلاعات علمية أجرتها مؤسسات متخصصة وموثوق بها.ولا ريب ان هذه القوى تدرك ان شعبية عون قد اهتزت بنسبة معينة ابان مرحلة ما قبل مؤتمر الدوحة ، لكن هذا الامر تغير بعد اتفاق الدوحة.
واكثر من ذلك بدت هذه القوى مطمئنة الى ان "التيار العوني" جذّر في الفترة الماضية حضوره في التربة المسيحية على نحو تحول معه من حالة عاطفية تكونت بعد "التحالف الرباعي" الى حالة سياسية متكاملة تعبر عن رؤية مستجدة في داخل الشارع المسيحي، هي نتاج التجارب السابقة.
- تنظر هذه القوى بإيجابية الى نتائج المؤتمر الذي وُلد من رحمه "اللقاء المسيحي الوطني" ان في حجم الحضور ونوعية الشخصيات المشاركة او الوثيقة التي صدرت عنه والخطاب السياسي المتطور الذي ألقاه العماد عون، وهو عبارة عن رؤية وطنية ناضجة، ستغير من نظرة كثيرين الى المسيحيين ودورهم الحاضري والمستقبلي في لبنان والمنطقة. واكثر من ذلك تعتبر هذه القوى ان الوثيقة والخطاب الذي سبقها يدلان في شكل او في آخر على ان العماد عون وتياره، هم من استطاع ان يترجم في شكل او في آخر المضامين العميقة التي انطوى عليها الارشاد الرسولي الذي من أجله وفد البابا الراحل يوحنا بولس الثاني الى لبنان في النصف الثاني من عقد التسعينات، وبذلت الكثير من الجهود لشرحه والعمل بمندرجاته.
وبالطبع لا تعتبر الشيعية السياسية نفسها انها صارت في حلّ من رفد العماد عون بكل اسباب القوة بعد كل ما تحقق، بعدما قدمت له اقصى انواع الدعم، فالامر بالنسبة إليها ابعد من ذلك. وليس سراً القول انه على سبيل المثال وليس الحصر شرع "حزب الله" قبل مدة قصيرة في إجراء اتصالات مع النائب ميشال المر بغية التوصل الى صيغة تجمعه والنائب عون في المرحلة المقبلة، وتحديداً في انتخابات الصيف الآتـي.
ولا تخفي اوساط الحزب ايضاً ان ثمة مناقشة مشتركة بدأت بين دوائر مختصة في الحزب ودوائر اخرى في "التيار الوطني الحر" وفي قوى المعارضة الاخرى بغية اعداد تصور عمل للمرحلة المقبلة، ويكون عبارة عن برنامج سياسي اقتصادي واجتماعي وطني يتضمن رؤية اصلاحية.

ابراهيم بيرم
ÌÑíÏÉ ÇáäåÇÑ

[J. Abizeid]

People tend to forget history even before it becomes history,
Here is a reminder:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6479377.stm


Bolton admits Lebanon truce block

A former top American diplomat says the US deliberately resisted calls for a immediate ceasefire during the conflict in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
Former ambassador to the UN John Bolton told the BBC that before any ceasefire Washington wanted Israel to eliminate Hezbollah's military capability.
Mr Bolton said an early ceasefire would have been "dangerous and misguided".
He said the US decided to join efforts to end the conflict only when it was clear Israel's campaign wasn't working.

Israel was reacting in its own self-defence and if that meant the defeat of the enemy, that was perfectly legitimate under international law
John Bolton

The former envoy, who stepped down in December 2006, was interviewed for a BBC radio documentary, The Summer War in Lebanon, to be broadcast in April.
Mr Bolton said the US was deeply disappointed at Israel's failure to remove the threat from Hezbollah and the subsequent lack of any attempt to disarm its forces.
Britain joined the US in refusing to call for an immediate ceasefire.
'**** proud'
The war began when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, but it quickly escalated into a full-scale conflict.
BBC diplomatic correspondent Bridget Kendall says the US-UK refusal to join calls for a ceasefire was one of the most controversial aspects of the diplomacy.
At the time US officials argued a ceasefire was insufficient and agreement was needed to address the underlying tensions and balance of power in the region.
Mr Bolton now describes it as "perfectly legitimate... and good politics" for the Israelis to seek to defeat their enemy militarily, especially as Hezbollah had attacked Israel first and it was acting "in its own self-defence".
Mr Bolton, a controversial and blunt-speaking figure, said he was "damned proud of what we did" to prevent an early ceasefire.
Also in the BBC programme, several key players claim that, privately, there were Arab leaders who also wanted Israel to destroy Hezbollah.
"There were many not - how should I put it - resistant to the thought that the Israelis should thoroughly defeat Hezbollah, who... increasingly by Arab states were seen as an Iranian proxy," said UN special envoy Terje Roed Larsen.
More than 1,000 Lebanese civilians and an unknown number of Hezbollah fighters were killed in the conflict.
Israel lost 116 soldiers in the fighting, while 43 of its civilians were killed in Hezbollah rocket attacks.
Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Bolton admits Lebanon truce block

Published: 2007/03/22 1327 GMT

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