Achrafieh Hariri? Achrafieh Armenians?

[GeorgeY]

Originally Posted by Joumana Gebara

GeorgeY,

No, no, no, ma fi attack and defence in a communication, hayda mich match football!! I have an opinion based on analysis of facts, you have an opinion based on analysis of facts, but our facts differ, our analysis differs. Get out the attack thingy from your mind. I asserted my point of view, you asserted yours, I do understand your point of view, you are not mistaken, but my point of view widens yours and adds points to it, if you are able to reread my post, tackle it and follow advise then you may gain much more than a fruitless discussion.

Btw I did not say Sehnaoui is not a good candidate, I said he has less chances and thus is a bad choice if you take into consideration that he is the cousin of Pharaon, and since Pharaon was first on the market, he has better chances as long as the substitute from the same family is not far better than the pioneer according to the voters (because of several reasons, it may be that they are used to the pioneer, or becaue they see a competition in one family, or other reasons, there are so many reasons, mankind's brain is complex, that's why I say again and again: make a focus group, make a focus group, then FPM cannot lose, it would be impossible!). I'll give you an example: If Coca Cola is first drink on the market, then Pepsi comes up, it is hard for Pepsi to take the first place. This is part of the product cycle. We have two products: Pharaon who was first on the market then comes Sehnaoui who is competing within the same market and his policy does not differ much from Pharaos (even if Sehnaoui is FPM and has a tiny differentiation, but his modo of dealing with the market was worse than Pharano since he did not meet with the needs of the people), thus whom would the people prefer to vote for? (Plus this very narrow family relationship in a narrow market was out of a big disadavantage for Sehnaoui since historically the first in the family wins, check Ibrahim Kanaan vs. Emile Kanaan and a lot of others). Maybe I cannot express myself, maybe I am too tired but I hope you got my point.

The other thing is the TV declaration of Poussy in Ashhafieh few days before the elections, you are completely underestimating its impact, really completely. A guy on the list of Aoun says he disagrees with the policy of Aoun is born to die on that list short before the elections, he completely repositioned and set himself in the "discredited" position of an unsure candidate.

Anyway let us leave the further discussion to the coming days and maybe then we may come back to it.


Last but not least I reiterate that your post had really valuable points, I am not saying otherwise than you did, but with my post I touched the solutions which you seeked in your approach.

To you all the best.

Dear Joumana,

u r still misunderstanding me on the point of attack and defence. personally i am not pro opinion "throwing" and that is it (and u r not doing that it is just to explain my point). i am pro debating, for me everything in life is debate in the sense of attack and defence. we can only learn through debates, which helps us in many ways one of them is to learn. for God's sake we had the constitutiion of France when they had it, look where they r and where we r. we should learn more interact more "fight democraticaly" more etc... i dont know the solution for that but send our MPs on training missions to other parliment (Lebanese MPs are **censored** hope FPM can change the way i see them)
concerning ur first post (and i say it again i didnt followup on the details of mourasha7in and what they said there bass kinit bil jaou because of relatives and friends in Ash). what i ve seen where mistakes that happened but in my point none of which u ve said for the reasons i explained before. and if u want my "population" from which i am saying is a family pro-LF and their atmosphere which usually in elections times propagate since mourasha7in visit all families and they were from the electoral machines.
what i am saying is elections 2005 no way FPM could win any single seat because of what happened (church, son of shou8ada "special bashir" eventhough his mom would have lost but ppl there gave chance to nadim)
in my point of view (and sry FPM :( ) there is not as sa7 w khallat (completly wrong campaign for Ash though beautiful :p ) there is only point of views.
as for correcting errors, about that i mistake u a lot. what if both parties worked 100% correct who wuld win? in the end what made us loose and u can find that to be in common for batroun and most places where FPM lost, is that FPM wanted to win by working 3 month before elections date, whereas FM 4yrs ago started working (na2il nfous), and most FPM where depedent on the "wizarat" to make them win (WRONG go talk to the ppl, visit them, listen to them, u cant believe how much a visit means to some of the ppl)
our duty as ministers is to work for the ppl and we shouldnt tell them what we "are" doing for them we should tell them what we "did" for them. examples on this are a lot but totally different subject

hope u get my point
regards

[Placebo]

Btw while going through the electoral numbers of Beirut 1, you see that only 4600 armenian voted with Tashnag. and around 1600 voted with the other. Frankly i was expecting about 7000 Tashnag voters in that area, especially after Tashnag's official statements, about "surprises" and moufeja2et men el 3ayar el thakil.

What happened? isn't 4600 kinda low? we could have won 3/5 at least if the numbers were as i expected.

can any tashnagy tell us what happened?

thank you

[Venom]

Originally Posted by Placebo

Btw while going through the electoral numbers of Beirut 1, you see that only 4600 armenian voted with Tashnag. and around 1600 voted with the other. Frankly i was expecting about 7000 Tashnag voters in that area, especially after Tashnag's official statements, about "surprises" and moufeja2et men el 3ayar el thakil.

What happened? isn't 4600 kinda low? we could have won 3/5 at least if the numbers were as i expected.

can any tashnagy tell us what happened?

thank you

Aren't you surprised?

[Orange Guy]

Originally Posted by Placebo

Btw while going through the electoral numbers of Beirut 1, you see that only 4600 armenian voted with Tashnag. and around 1600 voted with the other. Frankly i was expecting about 7000 Tashnag voters in that area, especially after Tashnag's official statements, about "surprises" and moufeja2et men el 3ayar el thakil.

What happened? isn't 4600 kinda low? we could have won 3/5 at least if the numbers were as i expected.

can any tashnagy tell us what happened?

thank you

Few days before the elections a Tashnag source said that the number of Armenian electors in Ashrafieh could reach 8000 ..and we all were happy that the battle is over with those votes .
No my friend ,you can't rely on a such source ,since it's not trustworthy .
Tashnag officials and supporters were more surprised when they saw the results ,trust me .They got 74.5% from the Armenian votes ,which is very disappointing for them .
Till now I believe that the results were played behind the curtains .
It's weird how the opposition got 57 ,14 march(without jonby) got 57 and Jonblatt (after changing his stances) got 14 .
Don't blame the Tashnag now after a month from the elections ,knowing that FPM didn't do the half of what Tashnag done in Ashrafieh district..we all lost ! turn on the next page ..move on

[Placebo]

Originally Posted by Orange Guy

Few days before the elections a Tashnag source said that the number of Armenian electors in Ashrafieh could reach 8000 ..and we all were happy that the battle is over with those votes .
No my friend ,you can't rely on a such source ,since it's not trustworthy .
Tashnag officials and supporters were more surprised when they saw the results ,trust me .They got 74.5% from the Armenian votes ,which is very disappointing for them .
Till now I believe that the results were played behind the curtains .
It's weird how the opposition got 57 ,14 march(without jonby) got 57 and Jonblatt (after changing his stances) got 14 .
Don't blame the Tashnag now after a month from the elections ,knowing that FPM didn't do the half of what Tashnag done in Ashrafieh district..we all lost ! turn on the next page ..move on

please note that i am not blaming tashnag. im just wondering what happened. because they worked like hell for the election, i wished FPM worked like them. & in beirut 1, they had 2 candidates. had they got the expected numbers, their 2 candidates + massoud would have passed, while sehnaoui and abou jamra, the 2 FPM candidates would have still lost.

so had they got the number they wanted, they would have been the biggest winners.

i just need some tashnagy to explain to me what happened?

[sev]

to add to orange guy..
in maten 2007 elections, tashnag recorded their lowest percentage between armenians. 78 % voted kamil khoury and 22 % voted amin gemayel. tashnag is used to get above 90% in maten between armenians..
in maten 2009, the armenian voters for kataeb/murr list increased even more. from 1300 voters in 2005, to 2000 voters in 2007 to 2800 voters in 2009..


also beirut 1 past elections, if u check the numbers of 2005 or 2000... no more then 400 armenians voted for henchak/ramgavar...
in 2009 1800 votes!!!!! and again i think 74.5 % is our lowest percentage ever in beirut 1 as well..


there has been miscalculations, but foreign countries helped them alot in bringing people from outside i think...
plus between armenian catholics in beirut 1, we brought 61 %... and i hear armenian catholic patriarch is sold to hariri.maybe it had influence as well

[hannaalsayssa]

or maybe Armenians have been bitten by the lebanese bug
and MONEY TALKS for some.

still Tashnaq was a great ally and we hope we stay allied.
no one is to blame, we did a great election and the loss was sectarian.
let us see how to approach zahle
but first are we using the same law or a new one?
everybody is mum on this subject.

[Shuyu3i]

According to Blacksmiths of Lebanon: Lebanon Election Statistics there are about 20,000 armenians. SO how many voted?

[Armenian]

Originally Posted by Placebo

Btw while going through the electoral numbers of Beirut 1, you see that only 4600 armenian voted with Tashnag. and around 1600 voted with the other. Frankly i was expecting about 7000 Tashnag voters in that area, especially after Tashnag's official statements, about "surprises" and moufeja2et men el 3ayar el thakil.

What happened? isn't 4600 kinda low? we could have won 3/5 at least if the numbers were as i expected.

can any tashnagy tell us what happened?

thank you

Dear Placebo,

1) The number of Armenians who voted for Tashnag are around 4800 and about 75% of of the total Armenian votes.

2) There was not a singal Tashnag responsible who created the number 8000. Go to the archives and you'll find out that the only person who talked about 8000 Armenians is Mr. Michel Pharaon.

3) Even though there was talk about 8000, the talk was about the total Armenian voters and not Tashnag. The total number now is around 7000, so very close to the number discussed.

4) Tashnag increased its votes compared to 2000 ( Since they boycotted in 2005) by 58%... I think that's huge...

5) The hell of work you're talkning about led to all the numbers i mentioned, and believe me all Tashnag partisans and all FPM responsibles knew about those numbers months before elections... So the problem with the rest was the media of Pharaon, who advertised about Tashnag bringing 8000 people, and some people fell for it...

6) I posted the detailed numbers of Ashrafieh in one of the threads... Check them again and you'll understand what happened in Beirut I and where the problem was...

Thank you!!

[sev]

hope u guys listened jaja on bimawdou3iyah tuesday..

" some people backstabbed me and didnt join my block, i was promised more mps in my block"

hehehe, it was about ashrafieh. Henchag > LF, Ramgavar > LF loooool.
4 mps to hariri, 1 to kataeb.. and what a one? nadim gemayel kah kah kah .. walad zghir..