2009 Election Related Issues

[Salome]

I thought to gather here all general questions and concerns about the upcoming election.
Furthermore the thread could serve as a place for suggestions (ex: campaigning), or calling for actions etc...

My first question would be, will there be international election observers present to oversee the transparency and fairness of the election?

[Dry Ice]

Originally Posted by Salome

I thought to gather here all general questions and concerns about the upcoming election.
Furthermore the thread could serve as a place for suggestions (ex: campaigning), or calling for actions etc...

My first question would be, will there be international election observers present to oversee the transparency and fairness of the election?

Probably, there was one by the European Union in 2005 but I assume it was more ceremonial than anything else..

EU deploys election observation mission to Lebanon - EU press release/Non-UN document (10 May 2005)

[dodzi]

Originally Posted by Dry Ice

Probably, there was one by the European Union in 2005 but I assume it was more ceremonial than anything else..

EU deploys election observation mission to Lebanon - EU press release/Non-UN document (10 May 2005)

The EU observation team did a great job. However, they were too neutral: they mentioned the bribes, the religious interference in the voting, and all other abnormalities, but "for the sake of neutrality", they don't mention what side it comes from!

On the other hand, their job is not to find a guilty, but to point to the "technical" problems of elections! Why? Because once you take care of the technical issues (law prohibiting bribes, recounts, legal measures, etc.), then other aspects of voting will be fair!

I hope they come again, but then stay to assist Lebanon in creating better conditions for future voting!

[Qwiw]

They have ZERO credibility.
Last time, in 2005, if you read their report... they told that elections were held normally. No word about the cheatings and the money of some political parties. I even think they preferred to generalize when there was something negative to mention, as usual when it's not in their advantage.

[dodzi]

Originally Posted by Qwiw

They have ZERO credibility.
Last time, in 2005, if you read their report... they told that elections were held normally. No word about the cheatings and the money of some political parties. I even think they preferred to generalize, as usual when it's not in their advantage.

Hey Qwiw, you are totally right! They did not talk about cheating, but they did mention money and bribes amongst other means of cheating... However, as I said in an earlier post, they didn't mention which parties used these moneys... They completely failed to give an objective report, as I said, "for the sake of neutrality"!

But a good thing about the report is their mentioning of the technical irregularities (they mentioned for instance how ballots are burnt directly after the counting, disabling any recount!), which are very very important!

They mentioned many very important issues, such as the fact that ballots are given to the electors by the parties and the mukhtars, the latter having enormous power thanks to that (again, not mentioning which mukhtars supported who), or the fact that voting happened in sometimes very non-neutral places (like a mosque near Tripoli)...

The technical issues are important because they have indirect influence on the voting process, and hence on the results! The report mentioned that these issues have to be dealt with in the future..

Anyways, they don't have much power in saying who has to do what! Even if they completely bashed Hariri and his allies, at the end of the day, it is the US and the EU who decide whether the voting was fair, normal or whatever!

[Salome]

Originally Posted by Dry Ice

Probably, there was one by the European Union in 2005 but I assume it was more ceremonial than anything else..

EU deploys election observation mission to Lebanon - EU press release/Non-UN document (10 May 2005)

Thanks for the link. Its a very well structured classical observation mission, their aspiration was at least promising.

The full report: http://ec.europa.eu/external_relatio...nal_report.pdf

[Dry Ice]

Originally Posted by dodzi

The EU observation team did a great job. However, they were too neutral: they mentioned the bribes, the religious interference in the voting, and all other abnormalities, but "for the sake of neutrality", they don't mention what side it comes from!

On the other hand, their job is not to find a guilty, but to point to the "technical" problems of elections! Why? Because once you take care of the technical issues (law prohibiting bribes, recounts, legal measures, etc.), then other aspects of voting will be fair!

I hope they come again, but then stay to assist Lebanon in creating better conditions for future voting!

By ceremonial, I meant that no one took them into consideration.

[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by dodzi

Hey Qwiw, you are totally right! They did not talk about cheating, but they did mention money and bribes amongst other means of cheating... However, as I said in an earlier post, they didn't mention which parties used these moneys... They completely failed to give an objective report, as I said, "for the sake of neutrality"!

But a good thing about the report is their mentioning of the technical irregularities (they mentioned for instance how ballots are burnt directly after the counting, disabling any recount!), which are very very important!

They mentioned many very important issues, such as the fact that ballots are given to the electors by the parties and the mukhtars, the latter having enormous power thanks to that (again, not mentioning which mukhtars supported who), or the fact that voting happened in sometimes very non-neutral places (like a mosque near Tripoli)...

The technical issues are important because they have indirect influence on the voting process, and hence on the results! The report mentioned that these issues have to be dealt with in the future..

Anyways, they don't have much power in saying who has to do what! Even if they completely bashed Hariri and his allies, at the end of the day, it is the US and the EU who decide whether the voting was fair, normal or whatever!

While we are on the subject of fair and just elections, I wonder,

1-How many of us believe holding Lebanon’s elections abroad, such as in Florida, would produce more honest results?

2-How many of us believe allowing expatriates that don’t live in Lebanon’s society to vote, would result in a more accurate representation for Lebanon’s society? (In Lebanon)

3-If a rich foreigner who doesn’t live in Lebanon donated a substantial amount of money to Lebanon, how many of us would feel obligated to give that person the right to vote?

4-What’s the difference between a Lebanese and a non Lebanese living abroad and donation money to Lebanon?

[Ignatius]

This article concerns christian parties and christian representativity

من نظريّة الترشيح ـ المؤشّر إلى الأحجام المسيحيّة

غسان سعود
خلال الأعوام الثلاثة الماضية، استهلك السياسيّون جزءاً كبيراً من وقت الناس بجدالهم حول من يمثل أغلبيّة المسيحيّين، هذا الجدال الذي بدأ يأخذ منحاه الطبيعي باتكال طرفيه على الانتخابات النيابيّة لحسم نتيجته، كما كان رئيس تكتل التغيير والإصلاح النائب ميشال عون يطالب منذ البداية.
لكن، في انتظار نتائج الانتخابات، تُسجل ملاحظة أوليّة ذات دلالة كبيرة، بحسب أحد المتابعين، إلى حجم القوى السياسية المسيحيّة، ونظرة كل طرف إلى حجمه.
فقد حسمت نقاشات داخل حزب الكتائب أمر تركيز الحزب انتخابياً على أربع دوائر هي المتن، زحلة، بيروت الأولى، والشوف. على أمل الفوز بأربعة مقاعد تبدو، على حدِّ وصف بعض المتابعين، صعبة المنال، وخصوصاً في دائرتي بيروت الأولى والشوف. لتكون بذلك حصة الكتائب النيابيّة نائبين على أفضل تقدير، كما يقول صاحب نظرية «الترشيح ـــ المؤشر إلى الحجم».
أما حزب القوات اللبنانيّة فحاله ليست أفضل من حال الكتائب، يتابع المصدر نفسه، رغم عدم إعلانه بعد عن مرشحيه. إذ تدل معظم المعطيات إلى نية القوات خوض الانتخابات ترشيحاً في 8 دوائر هي بشري، الكورة، البترون، كسروان، المتن، زحلة، بعبدا، والشوف، وسط تكهّنات ترجّح فوز مرشحي القوات في بشري، وبنسبة صغيرة احتمال فوز مرشحيها في دائرتي الكورة والبترون، وتشكك باحتمال حصول مرشحيها على أرقام كبيرة في الدوائر الأخرى، ليكون بذلك الطموح القواتي هو الدخول إلى المجلس النيابي بكتلة من ثلاثة أو أربعة نواب حداً أقصى ( نائبا بشري، إضافة إلى النائب جورج عدوان إذا قرر النائب وليد جنبلاط قبول ترشيحه على لائحته في الشوف). ولا يبدو الطرف الثالث في مسيحيي 14 آذار أفضل حالاً، فبعد السقوط المدوّي لمرشحي قرنة شهوان في جبل لبنان في الانتخابات السابقة، تبدو حظوظ معظم مسيحيي القرنة فقيرة، وسواء ترشح هؤلاء (باستثناء النائب بطرس حرب) أو لم يفعلوا، تبدو النتيجة معروفة سلفاً، ليبقى حظ مسيحيي تيار المستقبل كبيراً بالوصول إلى الندوة البرلمانيّة، ومعظم هؤلاء يفوزون في دوائر لتيار المستقبل كلمة الفصل فيها، مثل عكار وطرابلس ودائرة بيروت الثالثة. مع العلم بأن معظم هؤلاء لم يُحسبوا جدياً، خلال المزايدات على التمثيل المسيحي السابقة، ضمن مسيحيي 14 آذار.
في المقابل، وفي إشارة واضحة إلى الحجم وإلى نظرة كل طرف سياسي إلى نفسه، يؤلف العماد ميشال عون (لن تؤلف القوات لائحة إلا في بشري) لوائح في 6 دوائر هي جبيل، كسروان، المتن، بعبدا، بيروت الأولى، جزين. ويشارك بشكل أساسي، تأليفاً وترشيحاً، في 9 دوائر أخرى هي البترون، الكورة، زغرتا، زحلة، بيروت الثانية، عاليه، الشوف، بعلبك، عكار. وسط ترجيحات بفوز زعيم التيّار الوطني الحر في الدوائر الست الأولى، وفوز غالبيّة مرشحيه في الدوائر التسع الأخرى، ليدخل الندوة بكتلة لا يقل عديدها العوني عن عشرين نائباً.
فيما يكاد يكون أكيداً دخول الوزير السابق سليمان فرنجية المعركة بكتلة نيابية من ثلاثة نواب (نواب قضاء زغرتا)، قد يضاف إليهم عصام يونس إن فاز بمعركته في البترون، وفايز غصن إن ربح معركة الكورة، وبأمل أقل النائب السابق كريم الراسي إن حصلت معجزة انتخابيّة ما في قضاء عكار قلبت الأمور رأساً على عقب. ليكون فرنجية بذلك ممثلاً، دون جهد انتخابي يُذكر، بكتلة أكبر من كتلتي القوات والكتائب. ومثله سيكون حزب الطاشناق الذي يكاد يكون مطمئناً بالكامل منذ اليوم إلى فوزه الأكيد بأربعة نواب يملأون، دون منافسة تذكر، المقاعد الأرمنية في المتن وزحلة ودائرتي بيروت الأولى والثانية.
هذه الملاحظة الأوليّة سابقة لأوانها، بحسب أحد المراقبين. لكنها تشير، وفق مراقب آخر، إلى اعتراف الأطراف الرئيسيّين المعنيّين بالتمثيل المسيحي، في حقيقة الأمر، بقدراتهم وأحجامهم الذاتيّة. وتدل على إفادة زعماء المناطق والطوائف من تقسيمات الدوحة الانتخابيّة على حساب الأحزاب والقوى العلمانيّة التي تفوقهم امتداداً، لكن وسع مساحة انتشارها، وعدم تركيز قوتها في قضاء أو قضاءين، يمنعانها من إيصال مرشحيها.

Al Akhbar
من نظريّة الترشيØ* Ù€ المؤشّر إلى الأØ*جام المسيØ*يّة | جريدة الأخبار

[sarhay]

Will All districts of Lebanon vote on the same day. This mode of election is practically fair for everyone and used commonly in mst countries. Same day election for all could prevent swinging the vote in other districts one way or another. We,Lebanese, have seen what happen after Mount Lebanon election in the other districts where the religious leaders issued fatwas for people to vote for some group and nstigated sectarian sentiments that could have rsulted in turmoil. The point of having same time election is to provide fair system for all district and minimize swing voters for each side based on religious fatwas or vote buying bribes .