استقطاب الاصوات السنية المعتدلة

[Sadi2LiBnaN]

زعيم تيار المستقبل بيدعي انو زعيم سني و يدافع عن السنة في لبنان, ولكنه نسي انو السنة الان منقسمين , بين سلفيين يبحثون عن الدماء و ارهاب الطوائف الاخرى, و بين اكثرية صامتة لم تجد في نهج الوريث (العمولة و التبعية لمجرمي الحرب من بوش الى جع جع) ما عرفته في نهج الشهيد (التعمير و الانفتاح)
سعد الدين الحريري اختار ان يعنون حملته الانتخابية بشعارات الفتنة المذهبية ظنا منه ان السنة في لبنان يتوجسون من الشيعة و المسيحيين و لكنو اختار ان يقف في الصف الغلط :

لان السنة في لبنان لم يكونو يوما منغلقين على الاخر و لم يعتبروا غير اسرائيل عدوا لهم
لان السنة في لبنان ينبذون التعصب و الارهاب
لان السلفيين في لبنان لم يكونوا يوما اكثرية في الطائفة السنية
لان الجماعات السلفية التي تظهر في لبنان هي "زراعة" امريكية-اسرائيلية بتغطية و تمويل سعودي
لان السنة في لبنان عامة و تيار المستقبل خاصة سيكونون اول الخاسرين من امتداد الحركات السلفية المتغصبة

لان سوريا تطمح الى علاقات متوازية مع حكومة لبنانية وطنية
لان امراء السعودية تسعى الى اركاع الشعب اللبناني لاشباع غرائزهم الحيوانية

لان بهيج طبارة (الصوت المعتدل في تيار المستقبل و الذراع اليمنى للشهيد) يمثل اتباع التيار اكثر من احمد فتفت و الاحدب و علوش...
لان السنة في لبنان يحبون رفيق الحريري كما يحبون ال كرامي و الحص و ميقاتي و فتحي يكن...
لان التمثيل و الطاقات السنية في لبنان لا يمكن ان تحتكر في فؤاد السنيورة و احمد فتفت و مصباح الاحدب...
لان السنيورة منذ ان كان وزيرا للمالية الى ان اصبح رئيس وزراء ادخل لبنان في ضائقة مالية و دستورية و سياسية...
لان باريس 1 و 2 و 3 و 10 لن تحمل للبناني غير غلاء المازوط و انقطاع الكهرباء...

لان السنة في الشمال يعيشون الفقر و البطالة جراء سياسات التهميش التي تعاقبت عليه من نفس اقطاب المولاة اليوم
لان مشاريع و برامج التنمية و محاربة الفساد و المحسوبيات و الرشوة لنواب تيار المستقبل في الشمال تندثر مع انتهاء الانتخابات
لان السنة في الجنوب لم يشعروا يوما ان حزب الله له مشروع دولة خارج الدولة
لان السنة في الجنوب لم يكونوا يوما هدفا لاعمال ارهابية من مؤيدي حزب الله
لان حزب الله وقف و حيدا ليقول لقيادة الجيش ان الفلسطيين و نهر البارد خط احمر اجتنابا للفتنة المذهبية
لان المعارضة صرحت عندما استشهد احمد محمود لو قتلو منا الف شهيد لن ننجر الى الحرب المذهبية
لان ما حصل في 7 ايار لم تكن له خلفية مذهبية بل ردا على قرارات حكومة دكتاتورية عميلة ترفض مشاركة ابناء الوطن و تذعن للاملاءات الخارجية

لان بعض الوجوه السنية التي تدعي تمثيلها للسنة في لبنان قدموا الشاي ترحيبا بالعدو الاسرائيلي في حربهم على شعب لبنان العظيم
لان السنة في لبنان ما بيرضو يكونوا يوما جنبا الى جنب مع سفاحي الشعب من امثال جع جع و جنبلاط و انطوان زهرا
لان المقاومة في تموز و ضعت ضرب تل ابيب هدفا اذا قصفت بيروت لا الضاحية

لان لبنان وطن للجميع سنة و شيعة و مسيحية و دروز ... لبنان يوحدنا

برايكم كيف يمكن للمعارضة ان تتجنب مساعي الموالاة لاشعال الحرب المذهبية؟
كيف يمكن استقطاب الاصوات السنية المعتدلة؟

[Youchka]

Unfortunately, when so much chahen ta'ifi takes place, those "moderate sunni" you are talking about become a rare commodity. I have friends who hated Hariri Senior abban 3an jedd, who considered him a thief, a corrupt, a Saudi slave... and when he died they suddenly started to like him and were sad for the way he died. Now with all what's happening, they are talking about the invasion of the Chiite, they are talking about the Sunnis rights... Those are the moderate Sunni I know, the Sunni that drink alcohol and go to the beach. Those are the ones who warn me the FPMer of the wilayet el fakih. So unfortunately I do not believe there are many moderate Sunni when we are talking politics, they are only moderate in their way of living, that's all.

[lebnan_lilkel]

Unfortunately,

Saad Hariris call for the Sunni to revolt upon his fathers death, was sectarian and sent Lebanon Seculariasm targets 200 years backwards.

The Saudi Culture is very enclosed and fundemental. His followers thought he could rule Lebanon as a king.


If another Sunni speaks out, he will lose whatever popularity he had left. New Sunni Leaders are scarce. Mikati, was a hope, but lately there has been sectariasm in his speeches.

1)
Why didn't FPM make regular efforts to contact Mikatis followers ? They should help them in the north University elections as a start to initiate dialog.

The major issue is that he gets most of his income from Saudi. That could be jepodized and risky for hi.

2)
Leila Soleh is a good person with traditional support. Walid Bin Talel has been away lately , but he and her should be acknowleged for their community donations.

His staus in the Saudi structure could enforce change with Saudi relations.

Why are we not exploring these possibilities.

3)
A FPM Sunni, from Batroun/Akkar/beirut should be regularly present in GMA's Rabyi meetings, and given important roles. They don't have to be MP's. Just like Jebran Basil.

[SeekNirvana]

1) Detachment of the resistance's weapons from the [internal] political party of HA and of the Shiite sect.
2) Aoun to calm down with his fiery sectarian speeches.

But it seems the opposition doesn't care much about that at the moment because Aoun's base and HA's base make a majority no matter what the elections law is.

And since the new model of modern democracy [sic] is to have "unity" governments (a.k.a. pie-sharing organized mafia), the new majority (HA + Aoun) will be more generous than the current one and will give the current majority (and future minority) their "rights." This is what Aoun said in a recent speech.

Day after day, Pierre Hashash is becoming a more viable alternative.

[lebnan_lilkel]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

1) Detachment of the resistance's weapons from the [internal] political party of HA and of the Shiite sect.
2) Aoun to calm down with his fiery sectarian speeches.

FM is the sinni only exclusive club full of people with your mentality. HA and GMA as compared to Jozzo(bin Laden love bird), WJ and SG ( Mass murderers), and ALla yirhamou , Walid 3ido (Batttal el sabt el Aswad)...

But it seems the opposition doesn't care much about that at the moment because Aoun's base and HA's base make a majority no matter what the elections law is.

FM defines Aouns base.... LOL.

And since the new model of modern democracy [sic] is to have "unity" governments (a.k.a. pie-sharing organized mafia), the new majority (HA + Aoun) will be more generous than the current one and will give the current majority (and future minority) their "rights." This is what Aoun said in a recent speech.

No Saudi kings for Lebanon. Free people only thank you.

Day after day, Pierre Hashash is becoming a more viable alternative.

He slots well in place of Carlos edde. But better warn his supporters not to shoot.

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

1) Detachment of the resistance's weapons from the [internal] political party of HA and of the Shiite sect.
2) Aoun to calm down with his fiery sectarian speeches.

so Seek, these are the issues that will attract the "moderate sunnis" to the opposition? I will put the first point aside since u may very well be correct about it, but why would the second point repulse these "sunnis" from FPM? leh is FPM in its "sectarianism" attacking the sunni population? if so, plz do provide some tangible proof. And why don't these "fiery sectarian speeches" translate to the same outcome regarding SG and AG ( unless u meant by the term an attack on the sunni sect) who are cruising in sectarian speeches mode at Mark 2 these days?

And since the new model of modern democracy [sic] is to have "unity" governments (a.k.a. pie-sharing organized mafia), the new majority (HA + Aoun) will be more generous than the current one and will give the current majority (and future minority) their "rights." This is what Aoun said in a recent speech.

For the record, GMA said he will not deny them their right which is different from what u wrote here, bc no one can give someone his right. It actually negates the very definition of the word.

[SeekNirvana]

Originally Posted by vegojimbo

so Seek, these are the issues that will attract the "moderate sunnis" to the opposition? I will put the first point aside since u may very well be correct about it, but why would the second point repulse these "sunnis" from FPM? leh is FPM in its "sectarianism" attacking the sunni population? if so, plz do provide some tangible proof. And why don't these "fiery sectarian speeches" translate to the same outcome regarding SG and AG ( unless u meant by the term an attack on the sunni sect) who are cruising in sectarian speeches mode at Mark 2 these days?

Whether it's on purpose or out of being maladroit, there were many speeches that were not perceived well by the Sunni population. Whether the aiming at the prerogatives of the Prime Minister or claiming back some undefined Presidential prerogatives doesn't rank high in terms of creating trust within the Sunnis. Also, when you go out to declare that the train is back on track when HA decided to invade Beirut, it just seems to me that it doesn't ring well with Sunnis. When you have Gebran Bassil talking of Ahl El Sunna, it doesn't neither.

You might very well try to create nuances in all these speeches, and you might succeed to a certain extent in some cases, but the ones who are to convince are those who already perceived the issue as a sectarian attack. That might be difficult, and don't expect Aoun to go in that direction because it will jeopardize the Christian vote. If the plan is another 70% sweep, then that's how the way it's gonna be.

As for Geagea and el Teis, they're just trying to run the campaign Aoun is running. That's their only chance to come remotely close to him in the elections. Please don't tell me you're expecting them to run their campaign based on economic reform and tax incentives for SMBs :-)

For the record, GMA said he will not deny them their right which is different from what u wrote here, bc no one can give someone his right. It actually negates the very definition of the word.

What I am interested in is Aoun's take on this new governance model, a la "Ecole des fans." It seems promising. It will give the leaders the chance to tour the Arab countries ... Maybe Dubai next time? Doha can be boring.

[Youchka]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

Whether it's on purpose or out of being maladroit, there were many speeches that were not perceived well by the Sunni population. Whether the aiming at the prerogatives of the Prime Minister or claiming back some undefined Presidential prerogatives doesn't rank high in terms of creating trust within the Sunnis. Also, when you go out to declare that the train is back on track when HA decided to invade Beirut, it just seems to me that it doesn't ring well with Sunnis. When you have Gebran Bassil talking of Ahl El Sunna, it doesn't neither.

You might very well try to create nuances in all these speeches, and you might succeed to a certain extent in some cases, but the ones who are to convince are those who already perceived the issue as a sectarian attack. That might be difficult, and don't expect Aoun to go in that direction because it will jeopardize the Christian vote. If the plan is another 70% sweep, then that's how the way it's gonna be.

As for Geagea and el Teis, they're just trying to run the campaign Aoun is running. That's their only chance to come remotely close to him in the elections. Please don't tell me you're expecting them to run their campaign based on economic reform and tax incentives for SMBs :-)

What I am interested in is Aoun's take on this new governance model, a la "Ecole des fans." It seems promising. It will give the leaders the chance to tour the Arab countries ... Maybe Dubai next time? Doha can be boring.

Seek I agree with you that GMA sometimes says things meaning well, but they come out in not such a good way. Talking about the train back on track, I who knows GMA understood it well, but you are right, it was not perceived well by the Sunni. We should be more careful to the words we are using.

[vegojimbo]

Originally Posted by SeekNirvana

Whether it's on purpose or out of being maladroit, there were many speeches that were not perceived well by the Sunni population. Whether the aiming at the prerogatives of the Prime Minister or claiming back some undefined Presidential prerogatives doesn't rank high in terms of creating trust within the Sunnis. Also, when you go out to declare that the train is back on track when HA decided to invade Beirut, it just seems to me that it doesn't ring well with Sunnis. When you have Gebran Bassil talking of Ahl El Sunna, it doesn't neither.

Regarding the "aiming at the prerogatives of the PM", if one looks at it from a non-sectarian perspective, it is very promising and commendable. I don't know how it became about stripping the sunnis from their main role in the Premiership, but dirty sectarian minds can not think otherwise.
As for the comments about May 7, we'll just disagree here as I don't see any invasion at all. Although I don't quite agree with the man's statement (bc it was not appropriate to say when the fights will still brewing) I will just say this: he meant that the time of abuse and dictatorship of the loyalists is over.
yes, the statement was very insensitive to say, but it wasn't directed towards the sunnis, it was a political statement against political opponents. U can disagree with it, but saying it was against the sunnis is just falling in the trap of turning the event into a sectarian one, although in reality the cause of the fight that broke out was political and not sectarian.
Personally, I would have preferred the man say he was sorry for the lives lost during the clashes and just wish for this dark time to know closure very fast.

You might very well try to create nuances in all these speeches, and you might succeed to a certain extent in some cases, but the ones who are to convince are those who already perceived the issue as a sectarian attack. That might be difficult, and don't expect Aoun to go in that direction because it will jeopardize the Christian vote. If the plan is another 70% sweep, then that's how the way it's gonna be.

perhaps, but why blame Aoun on this perception of the loyalists? It's their brainwashing propagandist media that created this although in reality it isn't true at all. Why GMA is not explicitly trying to fix it? ur explanation might very well be the reason.

As for Geagea and el Teis, they're just trying to run the campaign Aoun is running. That's their only chance to come remotely close to him in the elections. Please don't tell me you're expecting them to run their campaign based on economic reform and tax incentives for SMBs :-)

u're very mistaken here Seek. Comparing these guy's lies and fabrications to GMA's campaign? Is the man fabricating incidents to exploit them in the media? Is GMA attacking the sunni population in order for u to consider AG and SG attacking the shiites, their doctrines, their spiritual leaders as playing GMA's game?

What I am interested in is Aoun's take on this new governance model, a la "Ecole des fans." It seems promising. It will give the leaders the chance to tour the Arab countries ... Maybe Dubai next time? Doha can be boring.

Indeed. casting prejudgments before u see the guys in action. Besides, what's so wrong in asking for ur right to be properly represented and standing firm by it? Oh yeah, it's a pie sharing contest. I guess one should either accept what is being offered to him for fear of being labeled as just wanting a share of the pie or take the other alternative: sit back and stay out of the gov, just like u've been screwed back in 2005; otherwise u're just obstructing everything.

[GMA forever]

Originally Posted by Sadi2LiBnaN

برايكم كيف يمكن للمعارضة ان تتجنب مساعي الموالاة لاشعال الحرب المذهبية؟
كيف يمكن استقطاب الاصوات السنية المعتدلة؟

Well the first major and main thing is that we need a Sunni figure in the opposition that is well respected among his sect mainly and among Lebanon as a whole that has enough balls to make his voice heard. I don't know where are the Sunni leaders anymore. Is Hariri now the only Sunni leader?

Once there is a Sunni leader who explains the point of view of the opposition for the Sunnis in Lebanon, then you can expect the moderate Sunnis to dare make their voices heard, and to have the power to reject the Wahhabi invasion they are facing.