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  (#41 (permalink)) Old
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Default 28th May 2009

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I got this by email:

If 14 March wins 71 deputies (VERY BEST SCENARIO ALL THE CANDIDATES WON)
Mr. Geagea will get 6 deputies
Mr. Gemayel will get 6 deputies
Independents (on 14 feb lists) get 4 deputies
Mr. Jumblat will get 17 deputies
Mr. Hariri will get 38 deputies .
which means Future Movement will have 60% of the next government ,
Mr. Jumblat 17% and the Christians of 14 feb 23% of the government.
as a result Mr.Hariri and Mr.Jumblat will have 75% of the government seats and the rest which is 25% for the LF, Kataeb,and independents , ye3ne bel 3arabeh el mchabra7 3/4 bi 1/4 , and they dare talk about mouselasseh :))))))))))))

If the opposition wins , lets say 65 seats (VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO)
Mr. Berri will get 15 deputies,
Kawmi will get 4 deputies,
Hezbollah get 11 deputies,
which is a total of 30 seats .
remains 35 seats for Tayyar ,Tachnaq, Marada and independents on their lists .
which means The Change & reform block will get more than 50 % of the government : haydee esma charakee.


For all the Christians who are being hammered day and night by fear of the Islamic state, of Wilayat el Fakih, tell us, which scenario ensures a stronger Christian voice, a stronger Christian coalition that could say YES OR NO as it pleases it?
The 35 seats are not all christian seats... am I right??? So the percentage will be less then 50%. Correct me if I am wrong...
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Default 28th May 2009

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Originally Posted by mikeys71 View Post
The 35 seats are not all christian seats... am I right??? So the percentage will be less then 50%. Correct me if I am wrong...

see the count again 35 C&R and 30 Allies, the 35 C&R have Abbas el Hashem and maybe one in Zahle who are not christians but not more than 5 so it is still 50% minimum.
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Default 28th May 2009

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see the count again 35 C&R and 30 Allies, the 35 C&R have Abbas el Hashem and maybe one in Zahle who are not christians but not more than 5 so it is still 50% minimum.
Regardless of their sect or religion, all the C&R MPs abide by the C&R decisions/stances.
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Default 28th May 2009

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Regardless of their sect or religion, all the C&R MPs abide by the C&R decisions/stances.
Yes, but he's asking about how many Christians MP the C&R can elect and they are at least 50% of the parliament while the leaders of 14 Christians cannot have Christian candidates elected except by FM and PSP. Isn't what this thread is all about?
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Default 28th May 2009

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Originally Posted by mikeys71 View Post
The 35 seats are not all christian seats... am I right??? So the percentage will be less then 50%. Correct me if I am wrong...
correct. The other flaw in this argument stems from the original author's assumption (J. Aziz) that FM MPs represent the Sunni sect Only!! Therefore, Farid Makari, Pharaeon, Hobeish, etc....will serve their Sunni constituents in Koura, Ashrafieh, Akkar, etc.....which is totally false!! these candidates will be elected because of the superb sevices they provide their local citizens!! so FM does attract a multi-confessional set of MPs...unlike LF or Kateab for example. So bottom line, we are comfortable with an FM majority in parliament and NOT an HA or FPM!!

We can also point to another flaw in the analysis. FPM candidates in Jbeil and Ba@bda will be elected primarily by shiite voters since the Christian voters will be split in those two casa. So Jean Aziz neglects this fact, conviniently, although in politics nothing is for free and FPM will own certain political capital to the HA partisans!!

Anyway....the whole J. Aziz ARTICLE IS HYPOTHETICAL. We got the message, he makes a valid point, but I had some reservations against it.
Elie
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Default 28th May 2009

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Originally Posted by ElieCedar View Post
[size="3"]correct. The other flaw in this argument stems from the original author's assumption (J. Aziz) that FM MPs represent the Sunni sect Only!! Therefore, Farid Makari, Pharaeon, Hobeish, etc....will serve their Sunni constituents in Koura, Ashrafieh, Akkar, etc.....which is totally false!! these candidates will be elected because of the superb sevices they provide their local citizens!! so FM does attract a multi-confessional set of MPs...unlike LF or Kateab for example.
Do you have any idea how enormous is the comment you made here?

Hadi Hobeish? Seriously. I can't comment about the other two but I'm from Kobeyate and know Hadi Hobeiche personally... The guy does not represent anything, seriously. Even when his father was a cabinet member, he did not represent anything in Kobeyate... I guess the real test is to see how many christians in 3akkar will vote for him and then you'll see if he's executing FM's agenda or his "christian" constintuency's agenda
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Default 28th May 2009

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Originally Posted by Romario View Post
Strong coalition of Sleiman Frangieh ( no where near Taghyir or Isla7, his tenure as Minister are a proof of his ethics/standards ), Michel Aoun ( I will refrain from upset you guys, but the least you can say is Aoun is extremely controversial, his means are arrogant and him as a person has very questionnable decisions ( previous wars with his 40%-of-an-army, endorsing Hezballah's weapons, etc... )....
What good can come if it is strong but will pull for what is perceived as an unsuitable agenda by many?
According to rule #13, off-topic posts are automatically deleted. Eza baddak tne2ish, come up with something to base ur arguments instaed of drifting away of the subject.
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Default 28th May 2009

hayne it is possible only because it is 128 deputies
34 maronites
27 chiites
27 sunnis

& on the ground this aint true

the number of deputies should be back to 108 or 100 so we will have no more Maronite seat in Tripoli, etc...

those extras keno yjam3ouwoun Jounblat w Hariri w berri iyyem l souriyye
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Default 28th May 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by ElieCedar View Post
correct. The other flaw in this argument stems from the original author's assumption (J. Aziz) that FM MPs represent the Sunni sect Only!! Therefore, Farid Makari, Pharaeon, Hobeish, etc....will serve their Sunni constituents in Koura, Ashrafieh, Akkar, etc.....which is totally false!! these candidates will be elected because of the superb sevices they provide their local citizens!! so FM does attract a multi-confessional set of MPs...unlike LF or Kateab for example. So bottom line, we are comfortable with an FM majority in parliament and NOT an HA or FPM!!

We can also point to another flaw in the analysis. FPM candidates in Jbeil and Ba@bda will be elected primarily by shiite voters since the Christian voters will be split in those two casa. So Jean Aziz neglects this fact, conviniently, although in politics nothing is for free and FPM will own certain political capital to the HA partisans!!

Anyway....the whole J. Aziz ARTICLE IS HYPOTHETICAL. We got the message, he makes a valid point, but I had some reservations against it.
Elie
wala superb services walla ballout.

each one of those servants is known for his loyalty for harriri and nothing more.

the blue sky will have to turn to green before ppl like pharaon move 1 cm without taking that order first from saad hariri and we all know them one by one a la serge torsarkisian and samir frangieh.....

u can assume otherwise, but that can't change facts.

harriri has 3 candidates in achrafieh and 6 in zahleh, if i were u LFers i would lay my head very very low for bringing this blue trash politicial sphere of influence into christian regions... u vote for them just to defeat us and u give them the bulk of the seats to boot for it.

ah yea hizbullah is 'invading us', next u gonna tell me those blue Future movement offices in achrafieh are all run by hizbullah.. 3eb ba2a

so as i said, u LF preachers are pushing ur luck exponentially since 2005 with ur actions and the ballot boxes will punish u all for it.

so take an advice and stay low politically unless u want to commit scene suicide by defending the undefendable blue trash in our regions.

ya boys, go vote for the harriri list in zahleh that only has 1 kataeb candidate as if zahle is the capital of harriristan.

u'r blind hate for GMA will cost u and the people will not have u forgiven if u don't repent for it.

6 mps for kataeb and 6 mps for ouwet max, that's ur best case scenario u are trying to sell us out for it.

walla 3ish ktir and shouf ktir, just like u prefered syria over us in 1990 and la7oud's ministers in 2005 u will keep preferring any form of blue or 'independent' trash over us a la murr/boues just to defeat us and sell out ur community in the process. while being self-righteous ofcourse as usual about it lying ur way through it.

just for once in ur lives try to respect ur bigger community rather than step on it or try to control it.

if u guys win you will be thrown at best a couple of ministry seats for ur services and u most likely would feel proud of it.

but we have other plans, we are gonna have the biggest parliamentary block and our fair share of representation from the government whether u like it or not, whether u oppose it or not and whether ur funder harriri approves of it or not cuz unlike u guys we have our community behind us and its interests ahead of us.

RP over and out
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Default 28th May 2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by ElieCedar View Post
correct. The other flaw in this argument stems from the original author's assumption (J. Aziz) that FM MPs represent the Sunni sect Only!! Therefore, Farid Makari, Pharaeon, Hobeish, etc....will serve their Sunni constituents in Koura, Ashrafieh, Akkar, etc.....which is totally false!! these candidates will be elected because of the superb sevices they provide their local citizens!! so FM does attract a multi-confessional set of MPs...unlike LF or Kateab for example. So bottom line, we are comfortable with an FM majority in parliament and NOT an HA or FPM!!
nice euphamism for clientelism.
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