Is Syria really getting ready for a war?

[christiansyrian]

Originally Posted by rayograph

Syria hasn't been involved in any military action since the yum kippour war; so if after all this time it decides to attack, i'm sure it would calculate all the possibilities and repercussions before

True, but i dont think syria would get involved in a full scale war against israel. I think it would make a small land grab in the golan heights and then force a UN peace agreement (which would be to its favour since there are UN resolutions that consider the golan heights occupation as illegal and it is an occupied area_.

[L'arbalette]

Originally Posted by christiansyrian

True, but i dont think syria would get involved in a full scale war against israel. I think it would make a small land grab in the golan heights and then force a UN peace agreement (which would be to its favour since there are UN resolutions that consider the golan heights occupation as illegal and it is an occupied area_.

If that scenario was plausible, why did Syria wait 34 years (since 1973) ???

Syrian army cannot inflict any significant damage to the Israelis. Israel will destroy their airforce in less than a day. Without their airplanes, the Syrians couldn't even win against less than 10,000 Lebanese soldiers with 40 tanks in 1989... They can make a small land grab against a better equipped / trained Israeli army????

I fear Assad is not that stupid, he knows he'll see his army destroyed in a couple of days if he dares attacking Israel...

The Syrian army is in now way comparable to HA. We've seen it in Lebanon. It is mostly suited to mug peaceful citizens for money, kidnapp, kill, etc. Clearly not effectively win a real combat

[3asheq Beirut]

Originally Posted by L'arbalette

If that scenario was plausible, why did Syria wait 34 years (since 1973) ???

Syrian army cannot inflict any significant damage to the Israelis. Israel will destroy their airforce in less than a day. Without their airplanes, the Syrians couldn't even win against less than 10,000 Lebanese soldiers with 40 tanks in 1989... They can make a small land grab against a better equipped / trained Israeli army????

I fear Assad is not that stupid, he knows he'll see his army destroyed in a couple of days if he dares attacking Israel...

The Syrian army is in now way comparable to HA. We've seen it in Lebanon. It is mostly suited to mug peaceful citizens for money, kidnapp, kill, etc. Clearly not effectively win a real combat

I don't know where you got that info from but it's not at all accurate. Historically, Syrian soldiers who have engaged with Israeli soldiers in land combat have performed very well. It is in their air defense where they are weak, and where Israel has been able to exploit them. But this is true of all Arab countries, who do not have access to advanced air defense systems. If Syria does improve its air defense, with Russian help, this would give it a great advantage and would undoubtedly put the Israelis on alert.

[Shuyu3i]

yeh for sure they r gettin ready for a war, in jnoub lebanon u mean.

[rayograph]

نفي روسي حول بيع<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

طائرات ميغ 31 ــ إي لسوريا
‏<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>
نفت الهيئة الرسمية المسؤولة عن صادرات الأسلحة في روسيا ما جاء في تقرير صحافي امس من أن ‏موسكو تعتزم بيع طائرات مقاتلة لسوريا وإيران.‏ <o:p></o:p>
ونقلت صحيفة كوميرسانت الروسية عن مصادر لم تفصح عنها في المجمع الصناعي العسكري القول ‏إن موسكو بدأت في إرسال شحنات تضم خمس مقاتلات اعتراضية من طراز ميغ-31 إي إلى سوريا وإن ‏إيران قد تستفيد من الصفقة.‏ <o:p></o:p>
وذكرت وكالات أنباء روسية أن سيرغي تشميزوف رئيس مؤسسة روزوروبون إكسبورت أبلغ ‏الصحافيين في معرض جوي بباريس أن «روسيا لا تعتزم بيع مقاتلات لسوريا وإيران».‏ <o:p></o:p>
وقالت وكالة أنباء إنترفاكس إن مصدرا في الوفد الروسي في لو بورجيه قال في وقت سابق إن ‏‏«دولة شرق أوسطية» لم يحددها أصبحت أول مشتر للمقاتلات الاعتراضية من طراز ميغ-13 إي وإنها ‏دفعت 400 مليون دولار بموجب التعاقد.‏ <o:p></o:p>
وفرضت الولايات المتحدة عقوبات العام الماضي على شركات السلاح الروسية بما فيها ‏روزوروبون إكسبورت بسبب مبيعاتها لسوريا وإيران. وتقول روسيا إن العقوبات خرق ‏للقانون الدولي.‏ <o:p></o:p>
وقال مسؤولون روس هذا العام إن روسيا أتمت عقدا لبيع أنظمة صواريخ تور-إم1 المضادة ‏للطائرات لإيران وهو ما أثار انتقادات من الولايات المتحدة.‏ <o:p></o:p>
وفي عهد الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين زادت مبيعات شركات الأسلحة الروسية في الخارج بسبب سعي ‏الكرملين لاعادة تأكيد نفوذه في الشرق الأوسط وآسيا وأفريقيا.‏ <o:p></o:p>
‏(رويترز)‏

20/6/2007<o:p></o:p>

[L'arbalette]

Originally Posted by 3asheq Beirut

I don't know where you got that info from but it's not at all accurate. .

Zahle, the syrians could not defeat 100 Bachir fighters
Souk El Ghareb / other mountain fronts: They could not defeat a weakened and ill equipped Lebanese army. Check the news from 1980 to 1990

[rayograph]

Originally Posted by L'arbalette

Zahle, the syrians could not defeat 100 Bachir fighters
Souk El Ghareb / other mountain fronts: They could not defeat a weakened and ill equipped Lebanese army. Check the news from 1980 to 1990

yes but don't you think that was a long long time ago??
military wise, radical if not crucial changes happen during 17 years!

[L'arbalette]

Originally Posted by rayograph

yes but don't you think that was a long long time ago??
military wise, radical if not crucial changes happen during 17 years!

Then it is all speculations. There are no facts or slightest indications that show that Syrian military is capable of anything relevant.


In any case, I would love to see a demo. For once a war outside of Lebanon....

[rayograph]

Originally Posted by L'arbalette

Then it is all speculations. There are no facts or slightest indications that show that Syrian military is capable of anything relevant.


In any case, I would love to see a demo. For once a war outside of Lebanon....

just take the example of Hezbollah; in 2000 they were something and in 2006 they were completely something else; not only they surprised Israel and the whole world but they surprised us as well; we never thought they were building up their military in the way they did...

we'll wait and see...

[3asheq Beirut]

Originally Posted by L'arbalette

Zahle, the syrians could not defeat 100 Bachir fighters
Souk El Ghareb / other mountain fronts: They could not defeat a weakened and ill equipped Lebanese army. Check the news from 1980 to 1990

The stories about those battles are not consistent, depending on what side you talk to. But those are not good indicators of the fighting ability of the Syrian Army.

A better indicator is the Syrian division which violated orders and decided to engage the Israeli Army in 1982. By all military accounts their performance was very impressive, as they defeated the Israelis in several battles, causing them to even capture many Israeli Abrams tanks, which they later handed to the Soviet Union in exchange for more Soviet tanks.

Also, in 1973, the Syrian Army made major advances against the Israelis in the Golan, as they had even reached Lake Tiberias, but the change in plans from the Egyptian sides allowed Israel, with the help of the US, to focus all its bombardment on the Syrians, thereby pushing back the Syrian Army.