Military of Syria

[rayograph]

with the rising tension between Israel and Syria, especially after what happened today, the conflict seems to be growing nearer...

can Syria afford a war with Israel? what sort of weapons does it have today and did it acquire new equipments? what would be its strategy? and what chances does it have of resisting and achieving something?

Military of Syria

Current Structure and Organization of the Syrian Army

• 200,000 personnel plus 280,000 conscripts, total 480,000<SUP class=reference id=_ref-0>[1]</SUP>
• 3 Corps HQ (1st, 2nd, and 3rd)
• 7 armoured divisions (apparently 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th<SUP class=reference id=_ref-1>[2]</SUP>)
• 3 understrength mechanised divisions (4th, 7th, and 10th)
• 4 independent infantry brigades
• 14th Special Forces Division with 3 SF regiments; ten independent regiments
• 2 independent artillery brigades
• 2 independent anti-tank brigades
• Three Surface-to-surface missile brigades (each three battalions)(one brigade with FROG-7, one brigade with SS-21 Scarab, one brigade with Scud-B/C/D)
• Two coastal defence missile brigades (one with 12 SS-C-1B Sepal launchers, one with 12 P-15 Termit launchers, alternative designation SS-C-3 'Styx'). Also they are strong rumors that Syria received C-802 systems and 100 missiles from Iran.
• One border guard brigade
• One Republican Guard division (one artillery regiment, one mechanised brigade, three armoured brigades)

Equipment

-Tanks-

• 1.600 T-72 , 1.000 T-62 , 200 T-55MV , 900 T-54/T-55

-APC/IFV-

• 2.450 BMP-1 , 560 BTR-152 , 100 BMP-2 , 1.000 BTR-50/BTR-60/BTR-70 , 950 BRDM-2

- Artillery-

• 50 2S3 Akatsiya , 400 2S1 , 536 D-30 , 10 S-23 , 50 M-1937 , 20 M-1955, 800 M-1954, 150 M-1938,

- Rocket Launchers-

• 250 BM-21 , 200 Type-63

-Surface to Surface missiles-

• 18 FROG-7 , 26 Scud-B/C ( 280 missiles) , Scud-D , 18 SS-21,

- Anti Tank-

• 130 AT-3 , 150 AT-4 , 40 AT-5 , 50 AT-14 ( 1500 missiles), 750-1000 MILAN

- Air Defence-

• 50 SA-6 , SA-7 , 56 SA-8b , 20 SA-9 , 35 SA-13 , SA-14 , 50 SA-18 Strelets , 50 SA-22 ( On order) , 350 ZSU-23-4

Syrian Navy

Equipment:

• Frigates:

<DL><DD>2 Petya II
</DD></DL>

• Missile Boats:

<DL><DD>2 Osa I
<DD>8 Osa II
</DD></DL>

• Amphibious warfare vessels:

<DL><DD>3 Polnocny B
</DD></DL>

• Mine Warfare vessels :

<DL><DD>1 Sonya <DD>3 Yevgenya </DD></DL>

• Naval aviation:

<DL><DD>11 Mil Mi-14PL
<DD>2 Kamov Ka-28PL </DD></DL>Aircraft

Interceptors

• 11 MiG-25 ,to be phased out
• 8 MiG-31E to be purchased;<SUP class=reference id=_ref-0>[1]</SUP>

Fighters

• 177 MiG-21, plans to upgrade them, possibly with India MiG-32.de
• 106 MiG-23, including the -BN, plans to upgrade.
• 20 MiG-29, with plans to upgrade to MiG-29SMT, and acquire a squadron of MiG-29M2. <SUP class=reference id=_ref-1>[2]</SUP>

Ground Attack

• MiG-23 BN
• 60 Su-22
• 20 Su-24

Trainers

• 40 Aero L-39
• 40 Flamingo
• 70 MFI-17 Mushshak

Transports

• 4 An-26
• 2 Dassault Falcon 20
• 1 Dassault Falcon 900
• 4 Il-76
• 4 Tu-134
• 6 Yak-40

Helicopters

• 10 Mi-2
• 55 Mi-8
• 45 Mi-17
• 36 Mi-24
• 38 Gazelle

Missiles


Air-to-air

• AA-2 Atoll
• AA-6 Acrid to be retired
• AA-7 Apex
• AA-8 Aphid
• AA-9 Amos on order
• AA-10 Alamo

Air-to-surface

• AS-7 Kerry
• AS-10 Karen
• AS-11 Kilter
• AS-12 Kegler
• Kh-29 ,(AS-14 Kedge)
• HOT

Surface-to-air

• SA-2 Guideline : 257 launchers
• SA-3 Goa : 143 launchers. under upgrade
• SA-5 Gammon : 48 launchers
• SA-7 Grail : 200
• SA-8 Gecko : 60

source: wikipedia

[rayograph]

MiGs Will Defend Syria and Iran

Russia has begun to implement the contract signed by Rosoboronexport with Syria this year for the delivery of five MiG-31E fighter-interceptors.

That means that Russia is renewing arms deliveries to the Middle East after a hiatus due to the war in Lebanon.

Iran may be the big winner from the deal, since there exists an Iranian-Syrian mutual defense agreement, and Iran is financing Damascus's purchase.

Several sources in the military-industrial complex told Kommersant that OAO Nizhny Novgorod Sokol Plant has begun working on the five MiG-31E aircraft.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007
naval open source intelligence

[rayograph]

وفي شروح متعددة لمراسلين ومحللين أمنيين في إسرائيل، كان البارز ما قاله محرر الشؤون الامنية والعسكرية في صحيفة «يديعوت أحرونوت» رونين بروغمان، الذي لمّح في سياق كلامه، الى أن الصواريخ السورية المزودة بالرؤوس الكيميائية ليست بعيدة عن متناول الطائرات الاسرائيلية، وأنها موجودة في الشمال السوري. وأضاف بروغمان انه بحسب المعلومات المتوافرة، لم يهتم السوريون بالموضوع النووي لأن «لديهم حلولاً أخرى استراتيجية لما تملكه إسرائيل من سلاح، وهو السلاح الكيميائي»، ولديهم كميات كبيرة منه، وهذه «الاسلحة موجودة في الشمال». ولفت الى أن هناك أماكن يقوم السوريون فيها بإنتاج صواريخ «سكاد ـــــ سي» و«سكاد ـــــ بي»، فضلاً عن أنهم «حصلوا على صواريخ جاهزة من كوريا الشمالية، ثم أخذوا ينتجونها بأنفسهم بمساعدة من الإيرانيين

12/9/2007
Al Akhbar

[proIsrael-nonIsraeli]

Originally Posted by rayograph

Air Defence-

• 50 SA-6 , SA-7 , 56 SA-8b , 20 SA-9 , 35 SA-13 , SA-14 , 50 SA-18 Strelets , 50 SA-22 ( On order) , 350 ZSU-23-4

Fighters

• 177 MiG-21, plans to upgrade them, possibly with India MiG-32.de
• 106 MiG-23, including the -BN, plans to upgrade.
• 20 MiG-29, with plans to upgrade to MiG-29SMT, and acquire a squadron of MiG-29M2. <SUP class=reference id=_ref-1>[2]</SUP>

If Israelis will be able to take care of list above it will effectively convert rest of Syrian hardware in to useless junk.

It will be difficult but doable.

[Hye4Lebanon]

If Israel does not destroy the Syrian Airforce in 3 days, it will be a long and ugly war.

[proIsrael-nonIsraeli]

Originally Posted by Hye4Lebanon

If Israel does not destroy the Syrian Airforce in 3 days, it will be a long and ugly war.

I do not think 3 days is realistic term. I think it will be more like few weeks to a month. And Israelis will incur some losses too.

[Hye4Lebanon]

then for sure it will be a long war.

Israel's biggest aim is fast and precise. If they fail to get what they want in 3 days, then it will be a long war. If it stretches beyond the 1 month, Israel will be in trouble economically. It can't afford being in war for over a month. Most its army is in reserves.

[proIsrael-nonIsraeli]

Originally Posted by Hye4Lebanon

then for sure it will be a long war.

Israel's biggest aim is fast and precise. If they fail to get what they want in 3 days, then it will be a long war. If it stretches beyond the 1 month, Israel will be in trouble economically. It can't afford being in war for over a month. Most its army is in reserves.

I fear the same but then I remember 1948 war lasted a year.

Last war lasted for one month and Israeli economy was nowhere near collapse.

May be they have more steam than we give them credit for.

Please, bare in mind that when I say "to a month" I mean air war.

Once that part is over rest will be just turkey shoot from Israeli point of view.

[Hye4Lebanon]

Originally Posted by proIsrael-nonIsraeli

I fear the same but then I remember 1948 war lasted a year.

Last war lasted for one month and Israeli economy was nowhere near collapse.

May be they have more steam than we give them credit for.

Please, bare in mind that when I say "to a month" I mean air war.

Once that part is over rest will be just turkey shoot from Israeli point of view.

true, but 1948 was different...can't compare.

The July 06 war was "technically" not considered a war by Olmert. I personally think there will not be any war with Syria given the difference between the Syrians and the Iranians is that the Syrians want to talk as opposed to Iran.

If the Syrian Air defense systems go offline, and the air force is shut, then yes, turkey shoot. But times have changed and the Syrians know this, the longer the war is stretched the better the chances are for a "victory". They (the Syrians) can take all the beating they want, but "riding" the war is their aim at the moment.

Israel can't afford it, at the same time can't stretch it that far. At least international pressure will always put the Israelis at bay. Of course there will be hardliners who want to plant a flag in Damascus.

Lets take one step back, what will be the aim of this war?

[proIsrael-nonIsraeli]

Originally Posted by Hye4Lebanon

true, but 1948 was different...can't compare.

The July 06 war was "technically" not considered a war by Olmert. I personally think there will not be any war with Syria given the difference between the Syrians and the Iranians is that the Syrians want to talk as opposed to Iran.

If the Syrian Air defense systems go offline, and the air force is shut, then yes, turkey shoot. But times have changed and the Syrians know this, the longer the war is stretched the better the chances are for a "victory". They (the Syrians) can take all the beating they want, but "riding" the war is their aim at the moment.

Israel can't afford it, at the same time can't stretch it that far. At least international pressure will always put the Israelis at bay. Of course there will be hardliners who want to plant a flag in Damascus.

Lets take one step back, what will be the aim of this war?

Aim of the war?

I do not care about Syrian goals, I see few for Israel.

One, cut logistical ties between Hezbollah and Iran.

Two, remove Syrian threat.

Three, destroy Syrian hope of getting Golans back.

Four, (long shot) to tear off Syria from Iran.

There may be more. I just do not see it yet.