Iranian elections and what you think about it.

[Ana3arabi!]

The entire so-called "reformist" campaign is built on lies and terrorizing of people and now these thugs are showing their true face and flushing their alleged patriotism down the drain (how easy it was for them to do it!!!) by harming Iran's interests (its security) knowing that there were enemies standing at its doors waiting for the opportunity to pounce on it. The so-called reformists are digging their own grave. They seem to think they have the 'momentum' to sack the Revolutionary principles and replace them with lies and subservience to american and israel, but in the end, the prisons will be the place where they will end up. Fortunately, they are few and far in between, these zionist inciters and terrorists. We all know what happened to MKO terrorists and if these so-called reformists continue to act like the thugs that they are, the same fate awaits them too.

[orange infection]

فريق ١٤ اذار يطعن بإنتخابات إيران بتهمة أن احمدي نجاد ربح الإنتخابات بسبب أصوات الشيعة
looool

[orange infection]

فريق ١٤ اذار يطعن بإنتخابات إيران بتهمة أن احمدي نجاد ربح الإنتخابات بسبب أصوات الشيعة

[Ana3arabi!]

The attack by Moussavi thugs were premeditated and pre-planned, this is the reason that Moussavi announced, even before the polls had closed, that he had won by a 53% of the votes. Notice that not even he claimed he had a lot more than half the population behind him, even in his fake claim of victory. The reason he made that claim of victory before the counting was even started was to give the impression to his thuggish supporters that there was rigging because the final result did not coincide with Moussavi's assessment (which was allegedly the true number). It was his implicit signal to them, to start burning public places and terrorize the population. By the way, how did Moussavi know how many percent of the votes he had received? Did he see what papers were being thrown in the ballot box all over the country? Did he conduct an exit poll? Also, if he knew he had won, and maintained the claim he had won even during the counting of ballots, he must've had mandubin present during counting? I thought he claimed all his representatives in counting rooms were kicked out? Does he have evidence of this? Also, for someone who was so sure of his 53% victory, he seems to have made a whole lot of random accusations that don't fit at all into the number he gave... :) Like, if people were standing in line and were not allowed to vote after polling hours had ended (the voting was already extended once anyway), then that must mean he is claiming that his supporters were not allowed to vote, and that this is one of the electoral frauds. If so, then he is admitting that he has not been victorious in terms of the ballots counted... so how could he have announced 53% win ??? And now there are rumors circulating by his thuggish supporters that he has won 19 million votes and Ahmadinejad has won 5 million and Mehdi Karroubi has won 13 million. LOL! And that this supposedly has come from an "unofficial" source in the Ministry of Interior who leaked it out. LOL! I mean, based on the reports in western media one would think the "regime" have become pros in electoral fraud, so how unprofessional is it to have such a leak? :) Also, that number does not give him a victory in the 1st round. It necessitates a 2nd round. :) And that means the 2nd round would be against Karroubi. How appropriate! Moussavi is losing it, and unfortunately for him he does not have the american embassy to seek refuge at. Maybe he'll go for the Swiss one. :)

[Salome]

Originally Posted by Learned

There isn't much chance of that happening. I don't think that most people really have a clear idea of how politics work in Iran, and they are looking at what is happening now from the lenses of West media, which is actually quite ridiculous and totally off base in its coverage. I will try to explain:

In Iran, there are a number of camps that make up the political dynamic of the country, and they can be more or less separated into the following categories:

First the conservatives:

The supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei: he has the final say on all major matters in the country, but in reality he is somewhat of a passive leader, who rules through "soft" power, and although constitutionally he is supposed to do whatever he wants, in reality he lacks the political capital to rule the way Khomeini did. However, he does control the Revolutionary Guard and Baseej (civilian militia). The government controls the army and police forces.

The old guard and clerical establishment: This centers around personalities like Ayatollah Jannati, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, and other prominent politically active clerics who represent what really is a multi-faceted clerical establishment that ranges from hard line conservative to conservative. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, for example, is a backer of Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad: current president of Iran.

All of these can be grouped into what is called the conservative camp in the country, although this does not make the conservative camp a unified political party or even unified coalition. Ayatollah Khamenei, for example, is not represented by Ahmadinejad, although Ahmadijad is loyal to wilayat al faqih.

Next, the "reformist" camp:

Hashemi Rafsanjani: he is the Iranian equivalent of Lebanon's Rafik Hariri. He is massively wealthy, extremely powerful, has control or sway over many portions of Iran's economic interests, and has many people in government who owe him their positions and are loyal to him. Ironically though, he is part of the old guard and clerical establishment, and he is forced to stay loyal to the waliy al faqih ideology in the political sense, but he aspires to become waliy al faqih himself, which puts him at odds with conservatives and Ayatollah Khamenei, although he does not oppose Khamenei outwardly because opposing the supreme leader is a "red line" politically.

Khatami: Former president of Iran, is one of the faces of the reformist camp.

In reality, the reformist camp itself is not a unified coalition either, and it is actually much more fractured and disorganized than the conservatives are. The runner up in the election, Musavi for example, was relatively unknown until a few weeks ago when the reformist base rallied around him for reasons that I will explain. Musavi himself has no real popular backing, and what is happening right now has absolutely nothing to do with him at all.

The Western media tends to portray the reformist camp as liberal-minded educated Iranians who are friendly towards the West, and want to overthrow the regime. They also like to pretend that regime change is a viable possibility, and that the reformists are the suppressed majority in Iran. However, this couldn't be farther from the truth. The reformist camp is rather a loose coalition of many different political interests, some of which are extreme minorities, and others which are massively powerful.

It does contain some heavyweights such as Khatami, who was considering running in the elections but withdrew for what he claimed was "unifying" the reformist ranks around one candidate, but the reality was that Hashemi Rafsanjani pressured him to withdraw his candidacy. Rafsanjani, who is ironically not a reformist at all, and who is wildly corrupt and actually quite despised by a solid majority of Iranian voters, is basically in control of the real effective powerbases of the reformist camp. Iran's so-called pro-Western liberals are almost non-existent in terms of political power, and represent a very small minority in the country.

In truth, this election wasn't between Ahmadinejad and Musavi. It was between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad. For those who payed attention, much of the campaigning and rhetoric in the weeks leading up to the election focused on the spat between Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani, who accused the latter on specific charges of corruption. Rafsanjani, who is doing his best to put himself in a position to become waliy al faqih, sees Ahmadinejad as a threat to his prospects of ascention (which are already bleak and Rafsanjani knows this), so he put his weight behind Musavi hoping that he could force Ahmadijenad out of power and install a loyal ally as President. Rafsanjani actually funded most of Musavi's campaign (for example, his daughter donated a whopping $300 million to Musavi).

The reason that Ahmadinejab won an apparent landslide victory isn't really because 2/3 of Iranian voters love him so much. To be sure, Iran's conservative base is significantly larger than the reformist base, and much better organized, but Ahmadinejad owes a non-negligable portion of his victory to many reformists who voted for him, not because they support him, but because they oppose Rafsanjani more than they oppose Ahmadinejad. I know for example, that many of the expatriate Iranians in California, who are liberals generally opposed to the theocracy in Iran (whom I have contacts with) voted for Ahmadinejad and not Musavi because it was clear that Rafsanjani was backing him. All through the election period, for example, Rafsanjani was using Musavi's newspaper to attack Ahmadijenad.

What is happening right now, in terms of the riots and what-not, is not representative of popular anger over the re-election of Ahmadinejad. It is really representative of Rafsanjani making noise over Musavi's loss in the polls. Rafsajani is sending a message, basically reminding Ahmadinejad that he still controls a lot of the strings in Iran, especially since Ahmadinejad seems adamant on exposing Rafsanjani for his widespread corruption. The two are basically political enemies. For this reason, what is happening right now has nothing to do with a popular rising or the prospect of a "revolution" in the offing. Rafsanjani is basically behind it, flexing his muscles, but the reality here is that Rafsanjani cannot take it any farther even if he wanted to - and he doesn't. One thing that Rafsanjani doesn't have control over is the military, whether that be the basij, the Revolutionary guard, army, intelligence services, or police forces. The basij and guard are controlled by Khamenei, and the police and army are controlled by Ahmadinejad's government. Even if he did, however, Rafsanjani has a vented interest in preserving the regime - because he is a part of it, and he aspires to head it as waliy al faqih. He isn't going to back a revolution against it, because it will bring him down before anyone else thanks to his notoriousness for being corrupt - even if there were any real prospects for a revolution, which there aren't. If these kids in the streets continue burning busses and creating a disturbance, Khamenei will eventually call on the basij to hit the streets and shut them down, and that will be the end of it.

thanks for summing it up.
I am not surprised if the western media is playing on it, as we can see it is doing it with Lebanon shamelessly...

However I had the impression the opposition gained some strength though lately, that maybe the youth at least want change and doesnt want an islamic state...but apparently this wish is still concentrated to some Iranian expats in the western countries.

I am against this islamic state, religious control and police and women wearing that black chador, public stoning and grave violation of basic human rights etc...but if the Iranians themselves are happy with it, then be it. The day when they really want to change it I guess they themselves will stand up for it.

[Ana3arabi!]

FYI the Chador is not imposed in Iran... nor is there any violation of human rights in the Islamic Republic. What we see is politically-motivated accusations by the enemies of Iran (israel , america, Europe, and the shah's supporters in the west) that are not based in facts.
If these thugs are the reformists, then Iran does not need any reform!!! The thugs are burning public and private property, and have shown an uncivilized image of Iran, unlike the Conservatives who have never done such a thing. Do you recall when Khatami was elected? Were there such riots? No, the losers accepted defeat and worked hard over the next couple of years to boost their chances of electoral success. Those who are rioting know that they will never get enough support in Iran for their policies, and this is why they are doing what they are doing. They want to impose their will on the majority of the people who said NO to their corrupt, immoral agendas that harm Iran. And now, the thugs want to terrorize the Iranian people by attempting to bring life in Iran to a standstill. But it is funny to see them believe in their own exaggerated strength. If by burning a few trash cans here and there, in their posh northern suburbs of Tehran, they think they are staging a revolution, then I must say they are stupider than even *I* imagined they would be... :)

[Ana3arabi!]

NOW on TV (BBC), HUGE crowds at Pres.-elect Ahmadinejad's victory speech, unprecedented in the history of Iran. :) :) :) You can claim vote rigging, but can you claim all those people are not really human beings but are robots?? :)

[Salome]

Originally Posted by Ana3arabi!

FYI the Chador is not imposed in Iran... nor is there any violation of human rights in the Islamic Republic. What we see is politically-motivated accusations by the enemies of Iran ....

yes sure, there are also no homosexuals in Iran (anymore, as they are all dead)...and also no public stonings, they are all made up stories by evil western media financed by zionists....

You know all these authoritarian regimes where there is no respect for freedom and civil liberties are just not any better than the nazi regime...you will not justify for me the regime of Ahmedinejad however you try.

[sev]

Mr. Mousavi is azeri, its good thing for us armenians he didnt win..

[Ana3arabi!]

Originally Posted by Salome

yes sure, there are also no homosexuals in Iran

Yes that is true...

(anymore, as they are all dead)...

It's interesting that for you, something that does not exist does not exist because it's been eliminated rather than because it does not exist....

and also no public stonings, they are all made up stories by evil western media financed by zionists....

What is wrong with public stonings? As far as I know there is nothing wrong in public punishment of criminals.

You know all these authoritarian regimes where there is no respect for freedom and civil liberties are just not any better than the nazi regime...

Nice, so you compare Iran to nazis...

you will not justify for me the regime of Ahmedinejad however you try.

I do not want to justify anything to you. The Iranian people justified Pres. Ahmadinejad for themselves.