Regional and International Politics Discuss anything related to Regional and International politics, from Arab-Israeli Conflict to US Presidency Elections
President Shimon Peres's landmark visit to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan this week represents a significant advance for Israeli ambitions in Central Asia. In the wake of the recent decision to permit Israel to open an embassy in the Turkmen capital of Ashghabad, the visit reflects the importance Jerusalem attaches to this strategically significant part of what is sometimes known as the "greater Middle East."
World Israel's stance reflects a series of hopes, interests and concerns. The most important of these are: the desire to contain Iranian influence, and joint opposition to radical Islam. Israeli technological expertise is of particular interest to energy-rich, rapidly developing Central Asian economies, forming the basis for growing economic relations. In turn, Azerbaijan has emerged as a major energy supplier. The country supplies just under 20 percent of Israel's oil.
Israel's desire to build strong connections with non-Arab Muslim countries in the region is of long standing and reflects an obvious strategic interest. Yet in the past, Central Asian states have preferred to keep their friendship with the Jewish state far from the spotlight.
Israel has maintained diplomatic relations with both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan since 1992. With regard to containing Teheran, relations with Shi'ite Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran, are of particular significance. Azerbaijan has close ethnic links with Iran. Far more Azeris live in Iran than in Azerbaijan itself.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is an ethnic Azeri. Yet relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have grown tense over the last decade for a number of reasons. The Islamic republic, for strategic reasons of its own, tacitly supported Armenia in the Azeri-Armenian war over the province of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Teheran dislikes the secular nature of Azerbaijani politics, and has offered support and training to Azeri mullahs and organizations preaching a pro-Iranian Islamist message. Iran and Azerbaijan also have competing interests related to energy issues in the Caspian Sea.
As a result, Baku has drawn close to Jerusalem on the basis of a shared threat. Israeli defense industries have made very significant inroads. Israel played the central role in rebuilding and modernizing the Azeri military after its losses in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan has also become one of the key arenas in the ongoing silent war between Israel and Iran. Both countries are thought to possess major espionage networks on Azeri soil. Israel is reported to maintain listening and surveillance posts on the Azerbaijan-Iran border. The recent foiling of a joint Hizbullah/Iranian plot to bomb the Israeli Embassy by the authorities in Baku shows the depth of activity.
Kazakhstan, which has no border with Iran, has sought to develop strong trade and strategic relations with the Islamic republic. Part of Peres's mission was to seek a firm Kazakh commitment that it would cease the sale of uranium ore to Iran. Astana's stance appears to reflect a desire to play a part in diplomatic mediation in the region and beyond it, on the basis of its image as a moderate Muslim state.
The more diffuse threat of radical Islam offers a further natural basis for friendship. In the Shi'ite but secular-governed Azerbaijan, this threat takes the form of Iran-supported local Shi'ite Islamist parties, and the presence of Hizbullah.
In largely-Sunni Kazakhstan, meanwhile, Saudi-supported Islamic extremists and the pan-Islamic Hizb al-Tahrir party constitute a significant irritant to the authorities, making them more inclined to greater friendliness toward Israel. The response to domestic Islamic extremism has been determined and uncompromising.
Kazakhstan's commitment to purchase satellite and surveillance technology from Israel reflects the growing role of Israeli defense industries in the country - a role which was shaken in April by claims that Israel had sold faulty military hardware to Kazakhstan.
Despite the extensive cooperation and common interest, Jerusalem has been frustrated by the unwillingness of both Kazakhs and Azeris to move toward a more open and overt relationship. There has long been a sense that both countries preferred to benefit from close links with Israel in a variety of areas, while keeping the public profile of the relationship as low as possible. Such a stance reflected the desire of both countries to maintain good relations with the Arab and wider Muslim world.
Israeli officials hoped that Peres's visit would be of importance in laying the basis for changing this stance. The Iranian response to the visit suggests that Teheran shared the sense of this possibility.
The Iranians lobbied hard to have the visit to Azerbaijan called off. Iran's chief of staff visited Baku two weeks ago in an attempt to persuade the Azeris to cancel the trip. He was unsuccessful. In response to the Peres visit, Iran has recalled its ambassador for consultations. In Kazakhstan, the Iranian decision to walk out of an interfaith conference while Peres was speaking represents an additional indication of Iranian displeasure, and hence a further diplomatic point for Israel. The bottom line: Iranian lobbying failed.
Next time their will be war between armenia-azerbaijan, There will be military help from iran to armenia IMO
On the other hand, armenian-iranian relations are very very good..
Quote:
A senior Iranian diplomat on Wednesday drew parallels between the dramatic post-election events in Iran and Armenia, saying that they were provoked by Western powers.
The two neighboring states were thrust into turmoil by presidential elections that sparked opposition allegations of fraud and massive anti-government demonstrations. Authorities in both states resorted to lethal force and mass arrests of opposition supporters to quell the protests.
Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, Seyed Ali Saghaeyan, reiterated his government’s allegations that the worst street unrest in Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution was fomented by Western powers and the United States and Britain in particular. “The United States and Britain tried to interfere but that didn’t work,” he said. “Everything has been sorted out.”
While noting that the events in Armenia and Iran are “not comparable,” Saghaeyan claimed that the West also had a hand in the unrest that followed the Armenian presidential election of February 2008. “In my personal view, the events that occurred in Armenia on March 1 last year stemmed from the West’s efforts to organize and finance revolutions in former Soviet republics,” he told a news conference. “We saw examples of that in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Fortunately, that was thwarted thanks to clever steps taken by Armenia’s leaders.”
Some Armenian pro-government politicians made similar claims last year. The foreign conspiracy theory was incorporated, at least initially, into the official criminal investigation into what the Armenian government called an opposition attempt to stage a coup d’etat. The Special Investigative Service (SIS), a law-enforcement agency leading the probe, claimed that opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian’s bid for regime change was “organized by one center” and “financed from abroad.”
Shortly after the March 2008 violence, the SIS chief Andranik Mirzoyan instructed regional prosecutors to round up participants of the post-election demonstrations in Yerevan and find out “what was said at the rallies about the assistance from foreign states” and “whether rally participants spoke about ending Russia’s presence in Armenia.”
President Serzh Sarkisian was among foreign leaders who congratulated his Iranian counterpart Mahmud Ahmadinejad on the latter’s disputed reelection. The two men agreed to press ahead with more large-scale Armenian-Iranian projects during Sarkisian’s April visit to Tehran. Those include the construction of a railway connecting the two countries and a big hydro-electric plant.
Saghayean said that the turmoil in Iran will not reflect negatively on the implementation of those projects.
Isn't Azerbeijan supposed to be a Muslim Shiite Country? How come Iran is siding with Armenia and israel is siding with Azerbaijan?
yes, the population of Azerbeijan is 95 % muslim, of which 85% are Shiite, the rest Sunni. However, the northern region of Iran (bordering on Azerbeijan)is populated by ethnic Azeris, who have cessationist aspirations and in fact want to be part of Azerbeijan. At the same time, Azerbeijani hardliners consider northern Iran as historically part of Azerbeijan. Therefor there a potential conflict, though now kept in check. It is believed that there are some 10 to 15 mil iranians of azeri origins in Iran, most of them in the northern provinces. So all these explain why Armenia and Iran have good relations (since Armenia and Azerbeijan are in conflict regarding Nagorno Karabakh), and it also explains why the US is so much interested in positioning a military base in Azerbeijan!! This also explaind why Israel is new best friends with Azerbeijan.
For the record, Azerbeijan, as a state, did not exist before 1920's.
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Isn't Azerbeijan supposed to be a Muslim Shiite Country? How come Iran is siding with Armenia and israel is siding with Azerbaijan?
You should understand that USA has been supporting Azerbeijan for a long time now with money and military aid.
Azerbeijan is seen as a secular country now and not as a Shiite one, and that's why the relations between Iran and Azerbeijan are not very smooth.
Also you should know that the current president is in very close relations with Turkey, and Turkey is in close alliance with USA...
The current Azeri President is a pro-USA one...
But what the article sais about Iran helping Armenia in the last war is not 100% true. Most of the help came from Russia, ironicaly the country that handed Nagorno-Kharapagh to Azerbeijan.
Thank you!!
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Isn't Azerbeijan supposed to be a Muslim Shiite Country? How come Iran is siding with Armenia and israel is siding with Azerbaijan?
This conflict is a reflection of the fact that the religious factor is very often irrelevant. A religion is not enough to form a nation nor even a strong alliance, something we should learn in Lebanon and in the whole middle-east.
There is a quite telling anecdote, concerning the relations between the "christian" western countries and the arabs or middle-eastern christian population. During his campaign in Egypt and the Levant, Napoléon Bonaparte was told by one of his lieutenants, to pay a visit to the christians natives and make deals with them in order to facilitate the military operations. It was nothing but a natural thing to do, for the lieutenant. They're christians and the native christians can't but ally with them. Napoléon answered him he was not interested by an alliance with them, but interested in making an alliance with non christians population. Why ? Because the christian minorities, which are weak in the Middle-East have no other choice but relying on the west in order to survive in case they were attacked by the others. So, no need to offer them anything, they will naturally come to the french and will never harm the french interests, while France can only look for its own interests without bothering about the native christians interests.
This was, indirectly may be, the US point of view in Irak regarding the christian population for instance.
As a conclusion, the religious factor is definitely irrelevant. Countries and nations have their own interests. Iran has its own, Azerbaïdjan too, Armenia too etc. Only the populations, easily manipulated with the religious propaganda tools used by the dictators and usurpators, believe in romantism...
This conflict is a reflection of the fact that the religious factor is very often irrelevant. A religion is not enough to form a nation nor even a strong alliance, something we should learn in Lebanon and in the whole middle-east.
There is a quite telling anecdote, concerning the relations between the "christian" western countries and the arabs or middle-eastern christian population. During his campaign in Egypt and the Levant, Napoléon Bonaparte was told by one of his lieutenants, to pay a visit to the christians natives and make deals with them in order to facilitate the military operations. It was nothing but a natural thing to do, for the lieutenant. They're christians and the native christians can't but ally with them. Napoléon answered him he was not interested by an alliance with them, but interested in making an alliance with non christians population. Why ? Because the christian minorities, which are weak in the Middle-East have no other choice but relying on the west in order to survive in case they were attacked by the others. So, no need to offer them anything, they will naturally come to the french and will never harm the french interests, while France can only look for its own interests without bothering about the native christians interests.
This was, indirectly may be, the US point of view in Irak regarding the christian population for instance.
As a conclusion, the religious factor is definitely irrelevant. Countries and nations have their own interests. Iran has its own, Azerbaïdjan too, Armenia too etc. Only the populations, easily manipulated with the religious propaganda tools used by the dictators and usurpators, believe in romantism...
OfCourse If Religion was an Important factor then Saudi would actually be allied with us against Israel.
Anyway Check this out:
زيارة غير مسبوقة لمسؤولين بحرينيين إلى الكيان الصهيوني
Israel is making Relations with the Azeris the Kurds The Bahrainees... And are Now demanding a Saudi Embassy in Tel Aviv in exchange for stoping settlements in west bank.
so will the American play with the Azerbaijan/Iranian conflict card?
i mean could there be a coming war between those two countries?
Very far and something difficult to happen...
Azeris if given the chance, the first thing they want to do is attack Armenia and Nagorno-Gharapagh in particular.
The Azeri people will revolt against its own government if they use all the military aid they are getting against Iran instead of using it against Armenia.
It's been 25 years that they lost the war, and they still didn't get over it and they are waiting for a revenge...
Azerbaijan-Israeli relations -
2nd July 2009
