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Originally Posted by dodzi  It is strange. I read an article in which Gilberte Zouein supported the right of Lebanese mothers and wives to give the nationality... Could you tell us when you interviewed her on the subject?
As for the statistics (and previsions), it is kind of strange that by 2081 Muslims will make up 80% of the population... And we're not even counting the Druze!
While I do understand that Muslims will make up a very large number of inhabitants in Lebanon, I doubt that 80% is a serious number. Just as the assumption that Germany's population will drop by 20M in 30 years!
There will be a lot of immigration and emigration, whether in Lebanon or in Germany. Also, there will be a drop in the number of child per mother in Lebanon, amongst all sects. The reason: things will get pretty tough for all 12 million Lebanese to live in 10 500Kmē!
Things will evolve, but it is impossible to predict in such a certain manner how exactly they will evolve! |
I called Zwein one day after her arrival from Paris where she was during the July War 2006 and she told me that this issue is not subject to debate as it will lead to demographic change. I will not published Nabil Nicholas' comment when I confronted him with what Zwein said as it is not really nice. Anyway you can ask Zwein yourself how her stands were between 2006 and 2008 on this issue.
About the statistics, you are right things can change however statistics are not based on speculations but as mentioned on ceteris paribus i.e. if nothing changes. Statisticians are not allowed to take into consideration random factors, just like in the economy when you discuss inflation, demand, supply etc, you base it on ceteris paribus.
Concerning Germany, I know very well what I am talking about, I published an article in Reuters in 2006 asserting how Germany is fighting this phenomena with the 1 per thousand rate of birth by (1) financially sustaining families, monthly 250 euro for each of the first two children, 3rd 300 euro, 4th 350 euro etc, till the age of 18 (2) financial support for two years after the birth of each child in form of 600 euro monthly, (3) preserving the working office for a mother for 3 years in order to be there for her child on the one hand and in order to continue her carrier on the other hand, (4) encouraging adoption from Balkan and other countries, (5) kidnapping children from binational marriages under the cover Hague convention to ensure children which are half German do not leave the German territory, (6) encourage marriage and cohabitation giving mothers full rights as long as she gives birth.
That Zwein changed her opinion is very much welcome. Thank you for the information.