Quote:
Originally Posted by joseph_lubnan  I have been talking about a major shift in the Independents sentiment in the Christian street for ever now it seems. Finally 2009 is here and we will see how it will unfold in the contested Christian areas. My guess remains that this shift will hurt FPM more than it wants to believe today in areas where its alliance with HA and some Feudals, cant bring it replacement votes. |
Lets take the elections in 2005 as a template and try to figure out FPM's chances in the upcoming elections.
in 2005: FPM and allies got 70% of the vote in the Christian areas vs 30% for the loyalists.
Most of the statistics that have been done, give FPM anywhere between 40-50% of the electorate.
Lets assume it is 40%. Therefore in 2005, the independent vote that went to FPM amounted to 30% of the total electorate.
On the other hand, lets assume that the independent vote for the other list amounted to 5% of the total electorate.
Independents make 35% of the electorate.
in 2005: FPM got 30/35% (85% vs 15%)
in 2009: FPM needs 10/35% (30%) in order to win.
I think FPM can manage to get 1/3rd of the independents vote in 2009.