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Originally Posted by SISCO  I have just returned after 2 weeks of vacation in Lebanon.
What i noticed is a hate against FPM and specially from those who don't follow a specific party or leader. Not to mention some FPMers who didn't hesitate to insult FPM.
These people were Pro FPM last year 
Some will tell that this is caused by the FTV, LBC, etc. propaganda. But in my opinion there is a problem that will cost FPM a lot in the next elections.
Maybe i am wrong and the ~100 person that i talked to don't represent a good sample.
Time will tell us !
Regards, |
I came back from Lebanon a few days back, and from what I have seen is that it is still the same. The people that changed their mind after the MOU, already changed their mind, but on average, FPM hasnt lost more than 10points and can manage 55-60% vs 70% in 2005.
I know people that voted FPM in 2005 that wont vote FPM in 2009. Actually, I was surprised when they voted FPM in 2005. Some of them are LFers that voted FPM in 2005 (cos they werent gonna vote for Jumblatt), others voted anti-HA in 2005 (thus voting FPM). Actually, those same people (anti-HA) used to criticize GMA when he was in France, and I remember pre-2000, when GMA used to criticize the Syrians, they used to say, the Israelis are the major threat, and GMA doesnt talk about them, now all of a sudden they remembered that Syria is the problem, and hence are anti-FPM ever since the MOU.
But the majority of the people that I know will vote the same way in 2009 (whether loyalists or opposition).
On a side note, I heard it from LFers, LF statistics show that in Deir el Ahmar, Emil Rahme gets 2/3rd of the votes vs 1/3 to Geagea.