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4th January 2009
What is for sure is that the International Community, under the hegemony of the United States and it's Israeli allies, will work to eliminate Hezbollah and Hamas by all means.
But they will fail...
Hezbollah and Hamas will also try to eliminate its enemy, the Israeli state.
But they too, will fail...
The circumstances in the next few months and years will call on the moderates on both sides to come up with a kind of peace establishment.
The CIA will try to eliminate Hezbollah by causing division inside the group. They will buy some members from the militant movement, and create a setting for a leadership crisis. I think there will be a fight between Sheikh Nasrallah (current leader) and Sheikh Qassem (potential successor). This will divide Hezbollah into 2 different groups, and weaken the party/militia's powerful assets. I think that scenario will occur when there will be a regime change in Syria (with Assad ousted), and when Iran will try to work on an agreement with the United States.
As for Israel, it is already weak: they failed against Hezbollah, and they are not doing well against Hamas today.
This will force the Israelis to call for a moderate leader who can request a peace agreement (if they want to survive), and the Palestinians will call on a moderate like Abbas to take over the whole Palestinian leadership and make peace with a moderate Israel. This will create the circumstances for a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal with the 2-state solution at its relevance.
The Lebanese will call for the same thing in the future to come. A moderate like Berri will try to work on a peace establishment with Israel. I don't know when that's going to happen, but I know that it is going to occur one day.
Best regards. |