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31st December 2008
I think a fifth option is the most probable and should be added to the pole... Israel is the strongest country in the region, it's natural political line is hard and agressive by nature... Moderates will never be in charge of Israel...
On our side of the border, the only party that is as strong as Israel (in its own way) and that has any credibility facing it, is Hezbollah... Hezbollah as well, has an intransigeant and hard line... Even though Hezbollah is not in charge of Lebanon, any development in the Israel/Lebanon relations will include their approval, implicit or not.
So I think that the hardliners from both countries will end up acheiving peace... When Lebanon will get wha tis rightfully wants, meaning Chebaa back, a solution for the palestinian refugees, and garantees that israeli violations will stop... When Israel will realize that a balance of power that can't be changed by force is now present... |