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Originally Posted by J. Abizeid  As long as the US government is in the business of borrowing money, they値l give you the illusion that your dollar is appreciating so you lend it to them instead of selling it. Once your money becomes their hostage and no one else wants to lend them anymore, they値l focus more on printing it. And while at it, they値l print your money back only smaller. I have a feeling they値l play that game until the upcoming Bush/European summit meeting that Bush wants to avoid desperately. As we all know, not only Asians but Europeans as well are tired of living in poverty in order to finance and bail out the dollar. The next message to Bush will be that the dollar artificial life support that started in august cannot last forever. He値l have to start printing more money and stop borrowing. The point is, when the treasury borrows money, it creates money supply shortage but, when forced to print it, it increases supply. The tsunami is coming soon.  Something else we need to take into consideration. We are living in unusual financial times where charts and statistics become unreliable. Notice how the dollar value has been fluctuation lately opposite to the DOW which means if the stock market ever goes up again the dollar must come down and balance out the effective value.But the reality on the ground has not changed. The $700 billions bailout money that will be followed by another one and the upcoming $150 billions stimulus package that the US government doesn稚 have will produce an artificial effect as dollar shortage supply while the treasury is searching to suck it out of the market but the tsunami reverse effect will trigger when the treasury money printing machine goes into high gear and floods the market with green junk money after the world tells them no more free ride. At that time, we値l see China and the rest of the world dump their own trillions of dollars before it's too late which accelerates the dollar demise even further. |
You are misunderstanding my posts , in all my posts i am not predicting that the dollar will strenghten or weaken , what i am doing is analyzing the charts and concluding accordingly ,if in the near future the charts shows a euro bullish signal , i will be posting that the euro will strengthen .
Your problem is that you are only focusing on the fundamental analysis , and ignoring the technical analysis of the charts.
If you read my previous posts you will notice that i mentioned the following :
1) in 1 of your posts you were predicting that the euro will bounce back from the 1.40 level , i replied to your post by saying that the charts are showing downtrend move as long as the 1.45 -1.48 level on the upside was not broken , eventually the euro couldnt break the 1.45 level and it head down to the 1.35 area .
2) in my post last week i mentioned that if the euro doesnt break above the 1.3785 resistance level it will be heading down again , the euro twice reached the 1.3750 level however it couldnt break higher , and eventually now it went down to the 1.31 level .
3) today we are in the 1.31 level , if we will analyse the charts we can say that if the Euro doesnt break above the 1.32.5 resistance and 1.33 downtrend line there is a big probability it will be heading under the 1.30 level , if it breaks above the 1.33 level this is a positive sign .
let us wait and see if my reading of today chart was correct or not !