[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by admiral

Historically speaking , the EUR/USD fluctuates the most in the period of November - January , so i dont think there will be any breather any time soon , especially when the ECB reduce its rates in December.

Now the level to break is 1.3053 , which is the 38.2% fibo retracement from its record time low at 0.822 to its record time high at 1.6050 , i expect a lot of fluctuation at this level .

Let us watch and see if the Euro will close below the resistance level of 1.325 and below the downtrend trendline at 1.33 by the end of the week , if it doesn't manage to go up and break the 1.325-1.33 level till the end of this week , there will be a very big probability it will push down to below the 1.30 psychological barrier .

As long as the US government is in the business of borrowing money, they’ll give you the illusion that your dollar is appreciating so you lend it to them instead of selling it.
Once your money becomes their hostage and no one else wants to lend them anymore, they’ll focus more on printing it. And while at it, they’ll print your money back only smaller.
I have a feeling they’ll play that game until the upcoming Bush/European summit meeting that Bush wants to avoid desperately.
As we all know, not only Asians but Europeans as well are tired of living in poverty in order to finance and bail out the dollar. The next message to Bush will be that the dollar artificial life support that started in august cannot last forever. He’ll have to start printing more money and stop borrowing.
The point is, when the treasury borrows money, it creates money supply shortage but, when forced to print it, it increases supply.
The tsunami is coming soon.



Something else we need to take into consideration.
We are living in unusual financial times where charts and statistics become unreliable. Notice how the dollar value has been fluctuation lately opposite to the DOW which means if the stock market ever goes up again the dollar must come down and balance out the effective value.
But the reality on the ground has not changed. The $700 billions bailout money that will be followed by another one and the upcoming $150 billions stimulus package that the US government doesn’t have will produce an artificial effect as dollar shortage supply while the treasury is searching to suck it out of the market but the tsunami reverse effect will trigger when the treasury money printing machine goes into high gear and floods the market with green junk money after the world tells them no more free ride.
At that time, we’ll see China and the rest of the world dump their own trillions of dollars before it's too late which accelerates the dollar demise even further.