[J. Abizeid]

Originally Posted by Abou-Eddie

I believe markets are driven 50pct by market forces and 50 pct by the policy of politicians, mainly the US.
1- Market forces: The US economy is in shambles, we know that for a fact. But we also know that the European economy is even worse off at this moment.
The Dollar is low, the Euro is high. Both don't deserve to be high but nobody should favor the Euro on the Dollar. Based on this, I believe market forces would push the dollar to 1.30-1.32.
2- Political impact: G.W. Bush is working on his legacy, he cannot afford to hand power to the next president with a dollar at 1.50. With all his interference, he will not be able to reach the 1.15/1.20 level. So for him, the best scenario to have an "acceptable" legacy is for the dollar to be 1.30 and to push for Mc Cain to win the elections.

Time will tell if I am right.

Indeed,
The American people don’t track the euro, not even their own currency,
All they care about is the gas prices at the pump and the interest rate that qualifies them to buy a home or a car they can’t afford.
Since the republicans are in control, we won’t see an increase in interest rate regardless of inflation.
As far as gas at the pump, they want to make sure it goes down below $2.99 a gallon meaning less than $100 a barrel, meaning relatively stronger dollar/ weaker euro.
Next week’s OPEC meeting will most likely prove the republicans still have friends among the Muslims and Arabs. I doubt Iran will be able force an oil cut.
But all bets are of after the elections and I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain wins.
If he does, I don’t see any reason to stop oil from going back to $147 and above and the euro beating its own record.
Come think of it, if you invest your money properly, you start liking those guys.
As you said, time will tell.
I think we’ll have a December to Remember this year,