Quote:
Originally Posted by sarhay  Thanks Mared. The coming election in Koura should not be taken for granted. I will elaborate using the numbers posted,thankfully, by Tayyar Aouni.
below are two scenarios that will give the loyalist more than what they have in 2005, but ever since there was some changes and i believe scenario1 might be realistic for 2009 granted that money, religions will play major roles in favor of loyalists. these are just assumption based on data provided in this thread. My only comments is that to take them with a grain of salt.
Scenario 1:Loyalists:
Sunni=3259, 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 50% loyalist=1800 and if 65% vote=1175
Orthodox=13972, 35% loyalist=4890 and if 75% vote=3668
Others=668, 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 6793
Opposition:
Sunni=3259, 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601, 50% opposition=2161 and if 65% vote=1175
Orhtodox=13972, 65% opposition=9081 and if 75% vote=6811
Others=668, 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391
Total projected voters=8589
Scenario 2:Loyalists
Sunni=3259 90% loyalist=2933 and if 65% vote=1907
Maronite=3601, 60% loyalist=2161 and if 65% vote=1404
Orthodox=13972 45% loyalist=5589 and if 75% vote=4192
Others=668 10% loyalist=67 and if 65% vote=43
Total projected voters= 7546
Opposition:
Sunni=3259 10%(stretching it) opposition=326 and if 65% vote=212
Maronite=3601 40% opposition=1440 and if 65% vote=936
Orhtodox=13972 55% opposition=7684 and if 75% vote=5763
Others=668 90% loyalist=601 and if 65% vote=391
Total projected voters=7302 |
Quote:
Originally Posted by hannaalsayssa something wrong with ur number
over 20 thousand voted in 05
so expect more this time |
It seems that the numbers he has given (far left) are the total who voted rather than the number registered. Therefore he will need to recalculate on that basis.