[quote=Salome;726785]
What do you think, could the tension intensify so that it broadens into a regional war?
In response to Salome
This is a complex question which requires a complex answer.
Let us break it down bit by bit to see a bit clearer. By the way I am not a fortune-teller. My goal is to describe the mindset of our current leaders in order to make some reasonably sound political predictions.
Ask yourself :
who is the true decision-maker in the whole war GO or NO GO process?
Lebanon ?
Syria ? or
Israel ?
In my opinion the true decision-maker in this process is Iran followed by USA & Israel. Lebanon & Syria can be viewed as satellite states who would either grab the opportunity or discreetly frustrate the israeli/iranian decision if they do not see it in their interests.
Lebanon sees itself as a playground for foreign powers who want to settle scores among themselves - including Israel Syria and KSA. After the heavy heavy heavy price (as Olmert put it) Lebanon paid during the july war PM F.Siniora is doing his best to get Lebanon out of this equation therefore adopting a neutral stand. This is not to say that a minor fraction of Lebanese (not officially speaking of course) would secretly welcome an upcoming war if it rids them of HA once for all (no need to give names-they are well known). However the general public in Lebanon is absolutely hostile to the upcoming war - whether initiated by HA or Israel or both.
On the other hand, if Israeli leaders are keen on making a come back after the july war, they will certainly not wait until Obama is sworn president in the white house since everyone knows how vital is US support for Israel to wage war. Israel knows that Bush is the most Pro Israel US president ever throughout history and this opportunity may never come back again. And both Israeli and american leaders know that time is running out.
Now if you go ask Iranian leaders the answer to your question lies here
In conclusion all ingredients are set in for a LOCAL (Israel vs Lebanon) or regional (Israel Europe USA vs Lebanon & Syria & Iran). All is needed is just one single spark.